505 
fxus65 kabq 212122 
afdabq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
322 PM MDT sun Mar 21 2010 


Discussion... 
nothing really significant weatherwise to discuss through Monday 
night or even Tuesday. There will be high...and perhaps some 
middle...level clouds clouds coming in tonight...probably maximizing 
coverage Monday then thinning out some Monday night before increasing 
again Tuesday. Surface winds will increase a bit more Monday and even more 
Tuesday with warming most areas between today and Monday and then some 
cooling mainly northwest Tuesday. The NAM model...12z and even the briefly 
viewed 18z run...still indicates a somewhat deeper and wetter 
solution for the later Tuesday to Wednesday night system that impacts the 
state. GFS and Euro are looking less impressive in that 
regard...primarily due to those models amplifying the northern 
short wave less than earlier runs or the any of the most recent 
NAM model runs. Given recent storm progressions...will still lean 
a little more heavily in the more amplified and wetter NAM 
direction...while easing probability of precipitation back a little across S and east central 
portions of forecast area as a slight nod to the GFS/Euro solutions. 
This system to be somewhat warmer than last...but still looking at 
pretty strong evap cooling due to pre storm low dewpoints which 
should bring snow levels down a bit lower than 700 mb temperatures 
would otherwise indicate. Still looking at a pretty decent back 
door cold front dropping across east and into at least central nm 
late Tuesday into Wednesday and that will help lower temperatures Post passage. 
Thought about Special Weather Statement issuance...but uncertainty is increasing a 
little...rather than decreasing...due to the even greater model 
differences that are cropping up in the more recent runs. 


43 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions expected at all taf sites through at 
least 00z Tuesday. Mainly clear skies through early evening will give 
way to increasing high level cloudiness across western New Mexico 
later tonight...with VFR high clouds overspreading the remainder of 
the area overnight through Monday morning. The potential for patchy 
low clouds/fog is lower than this past morning...but could see very 
localized IFR/MVFR conditions in the favored valley locations of 
north central nm as well as the Estancia basin and Central 
Highlands. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
high pressure aloft over the area tonight will gradually flatten 
during the day Monday. This will allow a canopy of high clouds to 
overspread the area from west to east beginning later tonight and 
continuing through early Monday. The high clouds will help to keep 
overnight min temperatures 5 to 15 degrees warmer than this past 
night...and corresponding maximum relative humidity/S noticeably lower especially for 
the upper slopes and ridges. With the dry air mass in place...the 
potential for patchy low clouds/fog is much lower than this past 
morning but cannot rule out very localized development in the 
favored valley locations of north central nm as well as the 
Estancia basin and Central Highlands thanks to snowmelt moisture. 


Despite thickening high clouds...a nice warming trend will extend 
through the day Monday especially on the eastern plains. Ventilation 
will remain fair to poor for the central valleys and western 
areas... improving to good on the eastern plains owing to better 
mixing and an uptick in surface winds. Quiet and dry weather is 
expected to hold through Monday night...with overnight lows 
continuing their upward trend as winds aloft become southwesterly. 


A cold front is then forecast to sag southward into the northeast 
corner of New Mexico just before daybreak Tuesday. At the same 
time...a couple of disturbances will approach New Mexico during the 
day Tuesday- one from the northwest and another from the southwest. 
Tuesday looks to be marginally breezy across the eastern plains as 
well as much of the south....while the chance of precipitation 
slowly ramps up across far western and much of northern New Mexico. 


Tuesday night through Wednesday night still appears to be the most 
unsettled period of the week. The above mentioned cold front will 
press southward down the eastern plains Tuesday night into early 
Wednesday...while the two disturbances merge over the region 
bringing increased precipitation chances. Temperatures will trend 
downward to well below seasonal levels Wednesday...especially across 
the central and east. Gusty north winds will be associated with the 
front over the central and east Tuesday night and Wednesday. 






&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 25 63 34 56 / 0 0 0 10 
Dulce........................... 17 57 23 51 / 0 0 0 20 
Cuba............................ 21 58 26 50 / 0 0 0 10 
Gallup.......................... 18 63 29 53 / 0 0 0 10 
El Morro........................ 20 58 28 48 / 0 0 0 20 
Grants.......................... 17 63 28 53 / 0 0 0 10 
Quemado......................... 18 64 30 52 / 0 0 0 10 
Glenwood........................ 30 69 38 61 / 0 0 0 5 
Chama........................... 9 51 23 46 / 0 0 0 30 
Los Alamos...................... 23 59 26 54 / 0 0 0 10 
Pecos........................... 23 57 29 54 / 0 0 0 5 
Cerro/Questa.................... 12 56 24 52 / 0 0 0 20 
Red River....................... 16 47 26 42 / 0 0 0 30 
Angel Fire...................... 4 49 26 44 / 0 0 0 20 
Taos............................ 18 59 27 55 / 0 0 0 10 
Espanola........................ 20 65 27 62 / 0 0 0 5 
Santa Fe........................ 25 58 29 55 / 0 0 0 5 
Santa Fe Airport................ 26 61 31 58 / 0 0 0 5 
Albuquerque foothills........... 32 64 37 63 / 0 0 0 5 
Albuquerque heights............. 34 65 40 62 / 0 0 0 5 
Albuquerque valley.............. 29 67 38 63 / 0 0 0 5 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 31 66 40 63 / 0 0 0 5 
Los Lunas....................... 26 68 37 65 / 0 0 0 5 
Rio Rancho...................... 31 66 39 63 / 0 0 0 5 
Socorro......................... 35 71 40 69 / 0 0 0 5 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 28 59 37 56 / 0 0 0 5 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 27 61 32 60 / 0 0 0 5 
Clines Corners.................. 26 58 33 57 / 0 0 0 5 
Gran Quivira.................... 29 63 34 63 / 0 0 0 5 
Carrizozo....................... 29 69 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 26 61 37 63 / 0 0 0 5 
Capulin......................... 21 59 33 49 / 0 0 0 10 
Raton........................... 20 66 30 56 / 0 0 0 5 
Las Vegas....................... 23 62 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 
Clayton......................... 29 73 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 
Roy............................. 28 69 38 59 / 0 0 0 5 
Conchas......................... 29 75 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 29 72 37 69 / 0 0 0 5 
Tucumcari....................... 29 75 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 30 72 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 
Portales........................ 29 73 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 30 75 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 
Roswell......................... 30 76 36 79 / 0 0 0 0 
Picacho......................... 29 75 37 77 / 0 0 0 0 
Elk............................. 30 68 35 71 / 0 0 0 5 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


43/41 

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations

Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)