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fxus61 kgyx 141834 
afdgyx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
234 PM EDT sun Mar 14 2010 


Synopsis... 
low pressure will remain stalled south of Cape Cod tonight through 
Monday and will slowly move off to the east Monday night and 
Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region from the 
northwest. High pressure will hold over the region through 
Wednesday. A weak cold front will drop south through the area on 
Thursday. A weak ridge of high pressure will build over the region 
on Friday and will hold over the area through Saturday. A cold 
front will approach from the west on Sunday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
low pressure will stall south of Cape Cod tonight. Over-running 
pattern to the north of this system parked over northern New 
England will begin to break down overnight but not before 
depositing another half to 1 inch of quantitative precipitation forecast across southeast New 
Hampshire and southern Maine. Boundary layer will also be cooling 
in northern and western zones as well as interior southern zones. 
Expect some wet snow to mix in with the precipitation this evening 
with some light accumulations expected over the higher terrain. 


Pressure gradient will once again tighten up over southern zones 
so winds will remain a factor overnight. Could still see gusts up 
to 50 miles per hour in southeast NE Hampshire and southwest Maine so will 
hang on to wind advisories through 08z. 


Will be dropping the Flood Watch with the new forecast package as 
several warnings already issued for southeast New Hampshire and 
southwest Maine. 


&& 


Short term /Monday/... 
precipitation winds down on Monday but will likely persist in 
southern areas in some form for much of the day. Boundary layer 
temperatures will be borderline throughout the forecast area with a mix 
of rain and wet snow most likely across the region. Looking for 
minimal amounts during the day with little or no accumulation. Far 
northern Maine will likely see a dry day with possibly a few sunny 
breaks in the afternoon. 




&& 


Long term /Monday night through Sunday/... 
the ocean storm system pulls out to sea as prpc ends from north to S 
early Monday night...with some rain or wet snow possible southern most areas... 
followed by clearing from north to S. Generally fair and mild weather 
Tuesday through Saturday. A weak cold front passage Wednesday night and Thursday with 
the fnt returning north as a warm fnt Thursday night and Friday which may 
kick off isolated to possible scattered -shra or -shsn. Activity mostly 
confined to more northern areas with very limited quantitative precipitation forecast. Next significant 
prpc event possible on Sunday as low pressure tracks NE into central 
Canada and a trailing cold fnt moves toward the eastern U.S. 


Generally used gfs40 and blend of mav/met MOS for Monday night through 
Tuesday night though did go a little warmer for maximum temperatures on 
Tuesday. Generally used gmos...with some adjustments to raise min 
temperatures with any prpc and to also raise sky cover for any prcp...for 
the rest of the long term forecast. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/... 
short term...MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight and through the first 
half of Monday...improving late. 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/...ceiling and visibility improve 
to VFR from north to S early Monday night. Otherwise VFR though weak cold fnt 
moving S then returning north as a warm fnt may bring some MVFR 
conditions to more northern zones Wednesday night through Friday. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...continuing storm warnings for the outer waters and 
gales for the bays. 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/...winds and seas slowly 
let up Monday night as the ocean storm pulls away. Still likely to 
see gale conditions over the outer waters and Small Craft Advisory conditions over 
the bays through Monday night. Winds drop off for Tuesday through Wednesday 
night as high pressure builds in. Seas also ease up...but very slowly 
and most likely remain at Small Craft Advisory levels through Wednesday night. 
Conditions will be below Small Craft Advisory levels Thursday through Friday. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...Wind Advisory until 5 am EDT Monday for mez018-019-023-024. 
New Hampshire...Wind Advisory until 5 am EDT Monday for nhz010-013-014. 
Marine...Gale Warning until 7 am EDT Monday for anz151-153. 
Storm Warning until 7 am EDT Monday for anz150-152-154. 


&& 


$$