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fxus63 kgid 191732 
afdgid 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE 
1232 PM CDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Aviation...18z taf. Snow will fall during the afternoon in an 
area of frontogenetic forcing...and the band of snow will 
reorientate to the southeast of kgri tonight. IFR conditions will 
common through much of the snow event and visibilities may flirt with LIFR 
conditions at times. Once the snow ends...visibilities and ceilings will 
improve. Winds will remain steady and gusty from the north with 
wind gusts in excess of 30 miles per hour possible. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 502 am CDT Friday Mar 19 2010/ 


Discussion...clearly the main concern is the rain transitioning 
to snow event today into tonight...along with gusty north winds 
behind a strong cold front. 


Needless to say...an abrupt transition from Spring to winter has 
been taking place across the County Warning Area tonight. As of 09z...a strong 
cold front has barreled through essentially all areas...with 
north/northeast winds of 15-25 miles per hour and gusts up to around 35 miles per hour 
common in its wake. Two areas of precipitation have developed 
overnight. In the southeast County Warning Area...an area of scattered rain 
showers developed on the nose of the low level jet...with even a few 
lightning strikes across Jewell County. Farther north...the main 
southwest to northeast precipitation band associated with middle 
level frontogenesis was just starting to graze the far northern 
County Warning Area around Ord...where a mix of light rain and light snow was 
getting underway. Meanwhile...the majority of the County Warning Area has remained 
dry so far tonight. 


Early morning water vapor imagery reveals a broad positive tilt 
trough axis aligned from the Hudson Bay region...southwest toward 
Arizona...with the main shortwave of interest diving southward 
through the intermountain west. In the upper levels...a 100kt jet 
streak was oriented from the northern plains across the Great Lakes 
region...with lift in the right entrance region of this jet streak 
enhancing the middle level frontogenesis overnight across northern 
NE. 


Obviously most of the forecast focus was spent on today. In 
short...areas of rain will gradually transition to snow from 
northwest to southeast across the County Warning Area...generally following the 
maximum in 700 mb frontogenesis. Although models still show a little 
slantwise or even upright instability remaining...mainly in the 
south...feel that any lightning strikes would be too far and few 
between to justify a continued mention in the forecast. 00z emc 4km WRF 
clearly shows the southwest to northeast banded nature of the 
precipitation today...and a few spots could accumulate a quick 
inch of snow in a short time. 


That being said...after plenty of thought and discussion with some 
neighboring offices...decided to hold off on any type of Winter 
Weather Advisory...and just continue hitting the snow/blowing snow 
potential hard in the severe weather potential statement. There are certainly arguments for and 
against an advisory. As has been well-discussed in previous 
forecasts...warm soil temperatures at least in the middle 30s-low 40s 
should greatly inhibit accumulation of the first inch or 
so...especially on roadways. Snow amount wise...even after raising 
totals roughly one-half inch across the board...totals still fall 
mainly in the 2-3 inch range...which is below advisory criteria. 
On the other hand...despite the wet nature of the snow...at least 
some blowing and visibility restriction is likely with winds easily 
gusting 25-35 miles per hour through the day. However...plenty of questions 
remain as to how pervasive visibility restrictions will be...with 
upstream observation struggling to get below 2 miles early this morning. 
Certainly day shift will have a chance to pull the trigger should 
things get worse than currently thought. 


By 00z this evening...most remaining snow should be confined south 
of a line from Geneva to Phillipsburg...and by sunrise 
Saturday...only the far southern counties in north central Kansas 
should stand any chance of lingering light snow. 


Temperature wise...readings today will go nowhere...and likely 
fall a few degrees with persistent cold air advection. Thus highs will be early 
in the day...and range from the middle 30s central and northwest...to 
the upper 30s/low 40s in the south/southeast. For Saturday and 
Sunday...raised highs several degrees...especially on Sunday. With 
increasing sunshine likely Saturday afternoon...do not expect any 
lingering snow cover to last long...and should at least reach 
middle/upper 30s most areas. On Sunday...raised much of the 
central/east a solid 5-8f from inherited forecast...bringing 
nearly the entire County Warning Area up to near 50. Just Don/T see how we can be 
stuck way down in the 40s with plenty of late March sun and 850 mb 
temperatures at least in +1-3c territory. 


With plenty to focus on in the short term...made essentially no 
changes to Monday and beyond. It still looks dry through at least 
Tuesday night...with temperatures Monday-Tuesday well into the 56-64f 
range County Warning Area wide. Would not be surprised to see some areas raised 
several degrees in future forecasts...especially Monday. 


&& 


Gid watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$