502 
fxus63 kgid 202055 
afdgid 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE 
355 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Short term...tonight through Sunday night. Dry weather will 
prevail through the short term periods across our County Warning Area as the main 
weather maker will remain to our southeast tonight...dumping snow 
across much of eastern Kansas into Oklahoma/Missouri. Despite being 
precipitation free...a cold and dry airmass remains in place and 
temperatures have just surpassed the freezing mark early this afternoon as 
Spring kicked off...and these readings are roughly 15 degrees shy of 
where they should be for this time of year. Lows tonight for the 
first night of Spring will follow suit and remain rather frigid. 
Current dps are in the teens to lower 20s and this is where readings 
will bottom out tonight as a surface ridge axis extends eastward 
across Nebraska...winds decouple and skies clear. 


The first full day of Spring on Sunday should see plenty of sunshine 
and warmer conditions with rising heights/upper ridging expanding 
onto the plains region. Have went with highs fairly close to normal 
right around 50f overall...or closer to mav numbers. The NAM/met 
appears to be overdoing the recent snowfall and trended 15f colder 
than the mav and its earlier run. Shortwave ridging continues to 
expand across our region Sunday night...setting the stage for even 
warmer temperatures on Monday. Overnight lows will be several degrees 
warmer and should average in the 20s overall. 


Long term...Monday through Saturday. Challenges include chances 
of precipitation Tuesday night through Wednesday night and 
temperatures...and also precipitation chances Friday night through 
Saturday night. 


With the Superior performance of the European model (ecmwf) as of late...I tended 
to favor this model over the GFS and other models. 


For Monday...I lowered high temepratures considerably due to 
signals toward a fairly thick cirrus shield induced by upper jet 
dynamics. Also...the surface wind looks a little more south rather 
than southwest. 


An approaching upper level trough gives US the next chance of rain 
by Tuesday night in the west. Better chances will remain in the 
south as it passes through...but the European model (ecmwf) produces a more open 
and progressive wave compared to the slower GFS with a closed low 
developing. The cooler air from the attendant cold front will keep 
temperatures getting much warmer than the 50s...with stratus 
moving in. The wave should be to the east by Wednesday night and I 
have bumped up temperatures for Thursday to account for ridging 
already occurring from the west. Friday is ridge dominated and 
might be the warmest day of the work week. Another wave moves in 
Friday night into Saturday and gives a chance of precipitation 
once again to most areas and added some thunder in the Kansas 
counties for Saturday/Saturday evening with MUCAPES in the 200 to 
500 j/kg range according to the European model (ecmwf). 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1220 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010/ 


Aviation...18z taf. Dry conditions will prevail through the taf 
period. Stratocu in the afternoon will scatter during the evening with 
clear skies expected overnight. Northerly winds today will 
transition to a westerly direction with time while wind speeds 
decrease as the surface gradient relaxes. Visibilities will remain unrestricted. 


&& 


Gid watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Heinlein/cmf