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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 
124 PM CDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Discussion... 
the main forecast challenges are temperatures. When looking at the 
latest surface analysis...surface high pressure is centered in west 
Saskatchewan...with a ridge axis through west ND into central South Dakota. When 
comparing the models...the models remain in pretty good agreement 
through tonight...so ended up using a model blend for the forecast 
update. 


When comparing the current surface temperatures...everything is 
pretty well on track...except for the dvl area...which has stayed 
colder than forecast. Thus...have cut high temperatures for today in 
dvl area...and kept about the same every where else. Also needed to 
make minor adjustments to sky grids as a clear hole is working down 
through east ND from Canada. With low convective temperatures today...expect 
it to fill in with cumulus and return to mostly cloudy conditions by 
later this afternoon. Rest of forecast is in pretty good 
shape...with only minimal changes needed. 


&& 


Aviation...18z tafs... 
pressure gradient will slowly weaken through the day...with winds 
dropping substantially after 02z with loss of diurnal mixing. MVFR 
SC will impact kbji through middle afternoon...with remaining taf 
sites mainly sky clear to scattered MVFR through rest of today. The exception 
will be over kdvl where self destructive sunshine will continue to 
lead to broken MVFR through around 00z. Otherwise...an improving 
pattern will take hold across east ND/west Minnesota with high pressure advancing. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
no measurable precipitation is expected through the weekend...with 
just a few flurries today. A system will move into the area early 
next week...and may bring a mix of rain and snow. This system will 
likely have little impact on the rivers. Snow would be more likely 
in the North Valley while rain or snow more likely in the S Red River 
valley. Temperatures have fallen well below freezing and this will 
eventually slow down runoff into the rivers. North winds will diminish 
by late afternoon. 


On the red...high water stages are projected to occur over the 
weekend or early next week from Fargo through Oslo. Oslo was rising 
at a more rapid clip due to some upstream ice. Still looking for 
end of month for Wave Crest to clear Pembina and move to our 
neighbors to the north. 


The main ice issues are near Lisbon...Kindred and Enderlin. Ice was 
not flowing at all near Kindred. The Sheyenne at Valley City is now 
projected to crest below flood stage...but this is dependent on 
full effect of 3400 cfs releases from baldhill. 


The Absaraka dam on Swan Creek upstream of Casselton continues to 
remain intact...although some erosion was continuing. At this 
point...the situation is being monitored closely by Cass County and 
the National guard. 


West Fargo...Harwood...Hendrum...Shelly and Climax will continue to 
be backwater affected from the main Stem Red River. Hillsboro 
trending toward major but rate of rise has decreased recently and 
will not raise warning severity at this time. 


Many Minnesota tributaries near the Red River are forecast to hold steady or 
fall. Minnesota sites forecast to rise near the Red River will be those 
affected by backwater. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 327 am CDT Friday Mar 19 2010/ 


Discussion... 
the main challenges center around temperatures and precipitation with major 
flooding continuing in the Red River valley. The GFS remains 
fairly consistent with an active pattern by early next week...but 
until then it should be dry. 


For tonight...high pressure builds in and expect a cold night. 
Given the amounts of standing water...this will likely freeze in 
place and with water on the sides of roads...caution is urged for 
travelers. Temperatures will fall well below normal and should be in the 
teens for most areas. 


On Sat/sun...expect some moderation in temperatures with west surface flow 
developing and warming thermal fields. 


For Mon/Tue...a system will develop in northwest flow aloft and low 
pressure should move into the S valley by Tuesday. The GFS remains 
the strongest with this system...and precipitable waters  climb to slightly over 
0.5 inches with a good baroclinic zone in place. Thermal fields 
indicate some light snow is possible Monday over the north...with precipitation 
spreading Monday night and Tuesday. The European model (ecmwf) is weaker with this 
system...but will mention chance probability of precipitation in all areas on Tuesday with 
snow north and rain/snow S. This system should not have an impact on 
Current River forecasts. Temperatures will cool some by Tuesday behind 
another cold front. 


For Wed/Thu...a strong baroclinic zone will remain close to the 
area...and where it sets up will determine how cold it might get. 
Expect the cooler weather over the north...and for now have kept it 
dry. GFS is hinting at a potentially active northwest flow pattern 
although confidence limited this far out...but something to keep 
an eye on over the next several days. 


&& 


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
ND...areal Flood Warning for Richland...Ransom...Sargent...Cass... 
Barnes...trail...Steele...Griggs...Grand Forks...eastern Walsh... 
and Pembina counties. 


Minnesota...areal Flood Warning for Kittson...western Marshall...western 
Polk...Norman...Clay and Wilkin counties. 


&& 


$$ 
Ng/dlh/wjb