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fxus62 kmhx 191925 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
325 PM EDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Synopsis... 
an area of high pressure will continue to slide east out of the 
Gulf and over the region tonight. The high will move off to the 
east on Sunday as a strong storm system organizes across the 
Southern Plains. The low will track to our northwest Monday...with 
the upper level low moving offshore Tuesday. High pressure will 
once again settle in from middle to late week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/... 
as of 3 PM Friday...clear skies and light winds resulting from high 
pressure will result in temperatures dropping off quickly after sunset. Not 
anticipating fog as dew point dropped low this afternoon. Temperatures will fall 
into the lower 40s inland...to near 50 along the coast. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/... 
as of 3 PM...as a middle level ridge slides east overnight and into 
Sat...look for a great start to Spring with temperatures in the middle 70s. The 
ridge will slide offshore sun...though return flow will be limited 
in moisture. There will be enough for some partly cloudy 
conditions...and with onshore breeze could see cooler temperatures near 
the beaches (water temperature around 55 Beaufort and 48 duck). 
Meanwhile...a deepening low pressure system over the S plains will 
advance northwest of the area with an associated trailing cold front. The 
middle level moisture will continue to increase...and as a cold front 
approaches sun nt there will be a low chance of showers in the 
evening...gradually increasing from west to east into Monday morning. 


The convective parameters look weak to marginal at this 
time...mainly in part to the peak dynamics passing early Monday 
before peak heating. The GFS is faster than the NAM...with the 
UKMET/European model (ecmwf) an average of the two. The cape looks marginal...with 
more moist saturated lapse rates...indicating a potential for 
thunderstorms and rain with heavy rainfall as much if not more than severe weather. The 
shear is a bit more impressive...so can't rule out some damaging 
winds in stronger thunderstorms and rain. The surface low will continue to weaken as it 
moves to our northwest Monday after...with trsa potentially dissipating on the 
backside of the low. However...the upper level low will remain to 
our northwest through Tuesday...which will keep at least a 20 pop for 
instability showers. 




&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
as of 1155 am Friday...remainder of extended period from 
Wednesday on will be characterized by building 500 mb heights with dry 
weather and temperatures close to seasonal normals. As for 
temperatures...blended the European model (ecmwf) with GFS MOS. The light winds and 
warm temperatures associated with the ridge will return sea breeze action 
to the coasts...keeping temperatures cooler there. 


&& 


Aviation /17z Friday through Tuesday/... 
as of 135 PM Friday...dry air in place across eastern NC with clear 
skies prevailing. Should see continued VFR conditions through the 
next 24 hours with little or no fog expected tonight as temperatures 
likely to remain above the crossover temperature. 


Outlook Saturday through Tuesday... 
expect VFR conditions to prevail Saturday. Ceilings lower ahead of 
approaching storm system Sunday with possible bouts of MVFR/IFR 
ceilings and visibilities in showers/thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. 
Lingering lower clouds possible Tuesday as upper low moves across 
the region triggering a few instability showers. 


&& 


Marine... 
as of 135 PM Friday...northeast swell energy lingers across the 
central waters with Diamond Shoals reporting 6 to 7 feet at 11 
second intervals this afternoon. Both the local Swan and wavewatch 
indicate seas should fall to below Small Craft Advisory after 00z so current Small Craft Advisory 
from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke until 00z looks good. Should be a 
nice boating day Saturday with SW winds 10 to 15 knots and seas 
generally 4 feet or less. Increased southerly gradient ahead of 
cold front will increase winds and seas Sunday night into late 
Monday night with Small Craft Advisory again likely...as seas build to as high as 6 
to 8 feet with occasional 20 to 25 knot winds. Wind diminish 
during Tuesday with light wind and sea conditions for the middle 
of next week. 




&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for amz152- 
154. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...sj 
near term...sj 
short term...sj 
long term...ctc 
aviation...ctc 
marine...ctc