994 
fxus63 kfsd 041703 
afdfsd 


Area forecast discussion for southeast South Dakota/southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa 
National Weather Service Sioux Falls South Dakota 
1103 am CST Thursday Dec 4 2008 


Discussion... 
cold day with temperatures struggling to move. Lowered highs a 
little over the deeper snow cover around Brookings with lower teens 
more likely there. Farther south lowered a degree or so but those 
temperatures still look pretty good. Otherwise...looks like some convective 
cumulus possible later today as temperatures warm into the middle 
teens. This may be enough to spark a few light snow showers or 
flurries which is already in the forecast. 




&& 


Aviation... 
mainly VFR conditions through tonight...but some convective cumulus based 
at or around 2500 feet will be possible this afternoon along with 
snow flurries. 


&& 


Previous discussion... 
main focus on weather today will be the cold temperatures and breezy conditions. 
Cold air advection will be in full force today as cold front exits eastern County Warning Area. With weak cyclonic 
flow and cold air aloft could also see a few flurries through the day. Will 
not be a solid cloudy day but will see a mix of sun and clouds. Very 
dry air moving in and dps will be closer to zero than what guidance is 
forecast. 


Surface high will slide southeastward into Nebraska tonight. Eastern County Warning Area should see the 
coldest temperatures espec over snow covered areas with western County Warning Area pbly 
reaching lows by 06z and then holding fairly steady. Should be a pc 
night. 


Warm air advection expected ahead of next short wave on Friday. Question is how much of that 
warming will work down to the surface...espec eastern County Warning Area where h925 temperatures are 
stil sub zero. This should keep highs in the 20s over snow covered 
areas NE of a Hon-fsd-slb line. Southwestern County Warning Area should mix out a little warmer 
into the 30s. This warmup will be brief as short wave will push cold front southward across 
County Warning Area Friday night. Should be able to squeeze out a little light snow with the 
short wave Friday night but should not be widespread or significant. Main cold air advection should 
kick in late Friday night and Sat morning. So lows Fr night should not drop 
off too much...but in the same part...highs on Sat pbly will not be 
more than 5 to 7 degree warmer than morning lows. 


Should stay cold on sun across County Warning Area as surface high slides into Minnesota and Iowa. Will 
push probability of precipitation further west on sun and keep arease of James Valley dry. Weak 
middle level fntgen could produce a little light precipitation across the western County Warning Area. 
This area of precipitation should speread eastward Sun night into Monday as short wave dives 
southeastward across northern plains. Basically a cold northwesterly flow aloft the next 10 
days with temperatures well below norm and only sporadic shots of light 
precipitation. 


&& 


Fsd watches/warnings/advisories... 
Iowa...none. 
Minnesota...none. 
South Dakota...none. 
NE...none. 


&& 


$$