235 
fxus63 kdlh 210032 aaa 
afddlh 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
732 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Discussion... 
no significant change to the afternoon zones is anticipated. The 
wind will slowly back as the high continues to build southeast 
toward the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. An Arctic front will 
cause the winds to veer a little again as it continues to cross 
the Manitoba lakes. The Arctic front will stall just north of the 
Canadian border late Sunday...then retreat northward as an 
inverted trough approaches from the west Monday. The Arctic air is 
moving east...toward James Bay and Quebec and not toward US. 
Clouds will stay north of our area tonight and remain north of 
Duluth on Sunday. Very low dew points will continue. 


Aviation.../00z taf issuance/ 
VFR conditions through the taf period with only some scattered cirrus passing 
through. Winds will be west-southwest to west and light. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 323 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010/ 


Discussion...latest regional surface analysis shows a ridge of high 
pressure over the plains and upper Midwest...which has brought dry 
and cool conditions to the Northland today under partly to mostly 
sunny skies. The ridge will continue to influence the weather 
across our County Warning Area through tomorrow with dry conditions...even as it 
moves off to the southeast of our forecast area. A cold front from 
Canada will then drop south over northern Minnesota and Lake Superior 
Sunday night and become stationary by Monday. Most of the precipitation 
associated with the front and its parent upper level shortwave 
will stay across northwestern Ontario Sunday night. The shortwave will 
quickly depart to the northeast of our County Warning Area on Monday...but the now 
stationary front will linger across our northern zones through Monday 
night...providing weak lift which should result in an increase in 
cloud cover across our Minnesota zones. A second wave over the Dakotas 
will then propagate east-northeastward along the front and across our County Warning Area on 
Tuesday. This disturbance will have more moisture to work 
with...so have kept low chance probability of precipitation in the forecast for a wintry mix 
of light snow and rain on Tuesday. Maximum temperatures will gradually 
warm back into the 40s and 50s over the next couple of days...then 
begin a cool down on Tuesday when the second system moves through. 


Extended...Tuesday night through Friday. 
Departing upper trough will leave slight chances of light rain or snow over 
mainly WI zones Tuesday night...then a cfnt will settle southward into western 
Great Lakes bringing more slight chances to northern and eastern zones Wednesday 
nite/Thu. Moved precipitation southward with fnt on Friday. There are some maj 
diffs among models for the Thursday/Friday time frame...mainly in the amount 
of moisture and quantitative precipitation forecast...so confidence not too high for this period. 
Therefore kept probability of precipitation low and generally split the diff between GFS and 
European model (ecmwf). Adjustments will undoubtedly have to be made as we get 
closer in time. 






Point temps/pops... 
dlh 21 48 30 48 / 0 0 0 10 
inl 19 46 24 48 / 0 10 10 10 
brd 22 51 29 56 / 0 0 0 10 
hyr 18 53 26 58 / 0 0 0 10 
asx 20 51 28 55 / 0 0 0 10 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 
Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Eom/lonka