791 
fxus63 kdlh 180216 
afddlh 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
916 PM CDT Wednesday Mar 17 2010 


Update...current forecast is in good shape...with only minor 
changes for the remainder of the night. Have dropped temperatures a few 
degrees in spots...and have decreased overall cloud cover 
overnight to partly cloudy across the area. Other than that...a 
quiet night across the County Warning Area. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 637 PM CDT Wednesday Mar 17 2010/ 


Aviation.../00z taf issuance/ 


VFR conditions prevailing at all terminals to start the taf 
period. Stratus deck and MVFR visbys are possible over all 
locations around sunrise and have a tempo group to cover that 
scenario. Winds pick up by middle morning again out of the west at 10 
to 15 kts at Minnesota taf sites. 


Previous discussion... /issued 316 PM CDT Wednesday Mar 17 2010/ 


Discussion...surface ridge axis was crossing the forecast area at 19z which 
resulted in partly cloudy skies. Maximum temperatures were once again well 
above normals. A frontal boundary currently pulling out of The 
Rockies into the western Dakotas...will cross through the Minnesota forecast area 
Thursday morning and northwest WI Thursday afternoon. Very little 
moisture to work with this front and expect no precipitation tonight or 
Thursday. Temperatures will return to the normal range as much 
colder air begins working into the area. 


An upper level trough will graze the northern portion of the forecast area 
Thursday night and Friday. Moisture is lacking...but enough lift 
near the Canadian border to warrant mention of some flurries late 
Thursday night and Friday morning. Northwest flow aloft returns for Friday 
night and Saturday...re-enforcing the colder air. 


Extended...Sat night through Wednesday... 
significant amplification of middle level trough over County Warning Area this period as 
western Continental U.S. Ridge amplifies. A cold front will sweep across the region 
Sunday dropping temperatures considerably. Although precipitation is possible 
across northern County Warning Area...speed of system and its associated forcing should 
limit quantitative precipitation forecast. Some mesoscale enhancement of quantitative precipitation forecast is possible Sunday 
night over South Shore...Gogebic Range...as lake/850 mb lapse rates 
steepen underneath cold moist synoptic circulation. Surface ridging 
develops across County Warning Area Monday/early Tuesday as middle level flow temporarily 
buckles. This break should be short lived as another migratory 
shortwave approaches the northern plains midweek. In response...surface low 
will organize over ctrl plains and push in a northeast direction. 
Progressive nature of middle level flow would lean towards a more southern 
Route of any surface low. At this time...gefs ptype suggests rain/snow with 
higher probability of snow across north. However...too much uncertainty 
among model suite at this point to warrant serious attention to 
details. 


&& 


Point temps/pops... 
dlh 36 49 26 39 / 0 10 10 10 
inl 34 43 21 35 / 0 10 10 10 
brd 35 58 27 38 / 0 10 10 10 
hyr 37 59 33 43 / 0 10 10 10 
asx 37 55 31 41 / 0 10 10 10 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 
Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Dap/kk