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fxus61 kgyx 041943 
afdgyx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
243 PM EST Thursday Dec 4 2008 


Synopsis... 
a cold front will move out to sea tonight. A ridge of high 
pressure will build east from the middle west on Friday...then build 
to the south of the area through Saturday. Weak low pressure will 
approach from the Midwest Saturday night and Sunday while 
developing low pressure passes by well offshore. High pressure 
follows for Monday and Tuesday. The next storm system will approach 
from the Midwest Tuesday night and Wednesday...then drag a strong 
cold front across the area early Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
the cold fnt will push offshore this evening with colder air moving 
in as west-northwest winds develop. This will bring an end to the prcp for 
most downslope areas while -shsn occur over the upslope north and Montana 
zones. Generally used the gfs40 and mav MOS for this forecast. 


&& 


Short term /Friday/... 
a ridge of high pressure builds east from the middle west on Friday. This 
will bring in colder temperatures to the forecast area with generally dry weather... 
though a few flurries may linger in the Montana zones. Generally used 
the gfs40 and mav MOS for this forecast. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Thursday/...stormy early in the period 
before the eastern trough lifts out to our east and is 
temporarily replaced by a weak ridge. Uncertainty increases with 
time...although the latest European model (ecmwf)...GFS...CMC global solutions 
point to a return of a deep eastern trough with exact location of 
the trough axis problematic. Temperature to run at or below 
normal through the period. 


A bit milder on Saturday in the southerly return flow as the ridge 
shifts offshore and ahead of the next system from the Midwest. On 
Sunday...we have a developing surface low passing off well to the 
east with models suggesting little or no interaction now between 
this system and another low over the Saint Lawrence valley. Ensembles... 
and now the operational runs...suggest the bulk of the quantitative precipitation forecast remains 
further offshore or to our north with little expected for the 
forecast area. High pressure follows this system for Monday and 
Tuesday. The next system arrives from the Midwest for Tuesday 
night and Wednesday with models trending warmer from yesterday 
with a mixed bag of wintry weather expected. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
short term /through Friday/...VFR conditions will prevail through the 
short term despite quite a bit of cloudiness and scattered -shra through 
this evening as a cold fnt pushes offshore. The one exception will 
be MVFR ceiling at leb with possible MVFR visibility in -shra through this evening. 
Conditions improve to VFR at leb overnight. 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...areas of MVFR Sunday and 
Sunday night in snow showers. Northwest surface winds with gusts 
to 25 knots are possible Monday. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term /through Friday/...will drop the glw to an Small Craft Advisory over the 
eastern outer waters with the afternoon coastal waters forecast package and continue the Small Craft Advisory 
over the rest of the waters. Current buoy reports show winds 
coming down at this time...but Small Craft Advisory conditions still prevail and 
will continue through the evening hours. Winds and seas should drop off 
by midnight when the Small Craft Advisory is set to expire. Cold fnt moves past the 
coastal waters this evening. High pressure ridges in from the west on 
Friday which should keep winds below Small Craft Advisory levels despite some 
gustiness due to cold air advection. 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...small craft winds and seas 
are likely Sunday into Monday with gusts to gale possible. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for 
anz150-151-152-153-154. 


&& 


$$