954 
fxus61 kcar 042017 
afdcar 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME 
317 PM EST Thursday Dec 4 2008 


Synopsis... 
a cold front will cross the region this evening. Colder but 
generally dry weather will follow the passage of the front 
tonight and Friday as high pressure builds in from the west. The 
high will move east on Saturday. Low pressure will move northeast 
from the New England coast later Saturday and Sunday brining the 
chance for some snow to the region. 
&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
latest analysis shows the cold front just to the west of the 
Quebec/Maine border. Expect the front to sweep east across the 
forecast area this evening. Much cooler air will follow the 
passage of the front later tonight and Friday although mainly dry 
weather is expected.. outside of any scattered snow showers or 
flurries mainly across northern areas. 
&& 


Short term /Friday through Sunday/... 
front expected to be well to the east of the forecast area at the 
beginning of this period. Still expect some low level moisture to 
remain along with weak disturbances moving through the overall flow. 
So will keep low probability of precipitation in north and northwest tonight. Also clouds 
over north tonight will keep temperature from dropping off so will 
stay close to gmos temperatures. Next focus is low pressure and 
strong upper trough approaching from the Great Lakes Saturday night. 
Expect this system to re-develop off the coast then move northward 
into the Maritimes. GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue to differ as far as 
developing surface system. Expect both models will trend towards 
compromise. So will set up pop grids with highest number over New 
Brunswick later Sunday. For wind grids have used nam12. Used model 
blend for probability of precipitation and sky cover...however have manually created probability of precipitation 
for Sunday to better reflect highest number over eastern area. For 
quantitative precipitation forecast used equal blend of nam12/gfs40. Gmos was used for temperature 
and dew point. 
&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
long range models in good agreement on position of system at the 
start of the long term. A low pressure system over eastern New Brunswick with 
an associated 2ndy low in the eastern Gulf of Maine will continue to move 
east as higher pressure builds across the region. By Monday morning a high 
center over eastern Virginia with an associated ridge extending north into Quebec will 
ridge across the region. This high will shift east into the 
Atlantic by early Tuesday morning. By Tuesday evening a system extending north along 
the Appalachians will begin to affect the southern County Warning Area...and by early 
Wednesday morning into the whole County Warning Area. The track along with 2ndy low will 
keep this system in the County Warning Area through the end of the forecast 
period. 
&& 


Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
near term: expect genearlly MVFR conditions kcar/kpqi/khul this 
evening...then conditions improve to VFR late tonight and Friday. 
Generally VFR at the rest of the area terminals through Friday. 


Short term: expect VFR conditions through Saturday night. IFR 
conditions possible Sunday and Monday as low pressure develops off 
the New England coast. VFR conditions expected Tuesday. 
&& 


Marine... 
near term: a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the waters 
into early Friday morning. 


Short term: for wind have used 50/50 blend of the nam12 and 
gfs40. Air temperatures expected to be somewhat colder than sea 
surface temperatures so will increase wind speed 2 to 3 knots. For 
waves have used wna wavewatch. Spectral data indicates near swell 
field subsiding rapidly at beginning of period which looks 
reasonable. Incoming long period wave field later in period below 
2 feet so lower wavewatch numbers look reasonable and will not 
make any changes. 
&& 


Car watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Friday for anz050>052. 


&& 


$$ 


Near term...duda 
short term...mignone 
long term...Norton 
aviation...duda 
marine...duda/mignone