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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME 
411 am EDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Synopsis... 
a warm front will lift north across the region today as low pressure 
tracks through Quebec. A cold front will cross the region on 
Saturday. This front will stall across the Gulf of Maine Saturday 
night and return northward Sunday night into Monday. Low pressure 
will track south of Maine Tuesday into Wednesday. 
&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
main focus this term will be the precipitation chances and temperatures. 
Fire weather could still be a concern...however...dewpoints will be on 
the rise into tonight. See fire weather section for further details. 


The frontal boundary which stalled along just off the coast is 
beginning to make its approach back to the north per the latest 06z 
surface analysis. Infrared satellite imagery showed clouds starting to fill back 
in across the western and southern areas. The clouds will be on 
the increase through the day today and lift northward this 
afternoon into the evening. Sunshine should be able to break 
through over the Central Highlands and downeast areas to allow to 
temperatures in this region to warm but some 5 degrees lower than 
has been realized that last several days due to a south-southwest wind taking 
hold. Daycrew/S temperatures of middle to upper 40s across the north 
and low to middle 50s for the Central Highlands and downeast looked good. 
Temperatures will fall back some tonight thinking here is that 
they will not drop much below the middle and upper 30s as County Warning Area is in a 
warm sector west/the cold front yet to move through. 


As for the precipitation chances...the decision here was to raise the probability of precipitation 
using the nam12 and sref. Highest probability of precipitation are across the north and 
west west/60% into late afternoon where best forcing and low level 
convergence will reside. Precipitation chances will wind down in the 
evening to 20-30% probability of precipitation as the warm front lifts and associated forcing 
lift to the north. Quantitative precipitation forecast amts into tonight will be 
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