532 
fxus64 klch 041804 
afdlch 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la 
1204 PM CST Thursday Dec 4 2008 


Aviation... 
cloud cover continues to hold firm over area airports this morning 
but is beginning to erode across central Louisiana as drier air 
filters in from the north. Guidance indicates IFR/MVFR ceilings 
will continue through the afternoon at kbpt/klch/klft/kara but 
slowly rise before rapidly dissipating to sky clear. Kaex will see more 
rapid dissipation of overcast with sky clear possible much sooner than 
currently forecast. Could also see some very light drizzle at 
klch/klft/kara this afternoon but will not mention in tafs. Winds 
will remain north-northeast 10-15 knots through the afternoon with a slight 
decrease overnight. 




Shamburger 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1025 am CST Thursday Dec 4 2008/ 


Discussion...surface analysis indicates the cold front which passed 
overnight is now located over southeastern MS/southeastern la. Regional 88ds show 
all but a few very light showers have also moved east of the 
area...the few light showers are located off Atchafalaya Bay. 
Therefore have dropped probability of precipitation from the grids/zones for the rest of 
the day. Main headache for the rest of the day will be the 
lingering cloud cover and its effects on afternoon temperatures. Visible 
imagery indicates clouds are beginning to break up over the 
extreme northern zones and this trend should continue through sunset 
over the remainder of the forecast area. Tweaked temperature grids based 
on latest trends but with minimal changes...biggest change was 
over the southeastern zones where temperatures were dropped a Cat or two. 


Update out shortly. 


Previous discussion... /issued 520 am CST Thursday Dec 4 2008/ 


Aviation... 
a cold dome of high pressure across eastern Montana will travel 
southeast into Kansas this evening. Intruding dry air...associated 
with the Montana high...will slowly wear away the Post-frontal 
stratus. Skies will clear out by late morning across the lakes 
region of southeast Texas...and across the Beaumont-Lake 
Charles-Alexandria airway by midafternoon. Stratus will linger 
around the Lafayette-Morgan City airway until early this evening. 


Cold-advectional northerly winds will begin blowing out of the 
northeast by this evening. 


Trares 


Previous discussion... /issued 448 am CST Thursday Dec 4 2008/ 


Synopsis...the cold front is moving quickly through south central 
Louisiana...southeast at 30 miles per hour. Temperatures are not far from 
expected maximums and should fall into the 50s for most locations 
during the day. Winds should remain quite breezy in the wake of 
the front while showers should be ending over Acadiana during the morning. 


Theres a chance that temperatures around the lakes area of 
southeast Texas could dip into the middle 20s Saturday morning as the 
cold high pressure ridge moves over that area. Another light 
freeze for the remainder of the area north of I-10 as winds 
finally decouple. 


Sunday should see a resurgent polar high nose into the area from 
Canada, reinforcing our northerly winds and cool temperatures. 


Short term...like shooting fish in a barrel on expected day time 
maximum temperatures as strong cold air advection and moisture in the 
boundary layer above the shallow cold airmass chills temperatures into 
the 50s during the day. That same stratcu deck and brisk winds should 
help keep temperatures from plunging too low tnite. Clearing skies and 
diminishing winds should allow temperatures to fall Friday night. NAM 
guidance looks to have a good handle on this. 


Long term...GFS and Euro hinting at a storm system over the 
Southern Plains on Tuesday. This will be our next shot at rain and 
possibly strong to severe thunderstorms courtesy of a good warm 
sector and a strong southern jet. 


Marine...could not rule out gusts above 20 knots for the near 
shore waters when taking the strong cold advection into 
consideration along with RUC/NAM/GFS 20 knotters so hoisted the 
Small Craft Advisory for that area and extended the scas until middle-morning Friday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
klch 57 39 50 34 58 / 10 0 0 10 10 
kbpt 55 37 50 34 59 / 10 0 0 10 10 
kaex 53 33 47 29 53 / 10 0 0 10 10 
klft 58 43 49 34 56 / 20 0 0 10 10 


&& 


Lch watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
Texas...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 am CST Friday for the following 
zones: coastal waters from Cameron, la to High Island, Texas 
out 20 nm...coastal waters from Intracoastal City to 
Cameron, la out 20 nm...coastal waters from lower 
Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City, la out 20 nm... 
waters from Cameron, la to High Island, Texas extending from 
20 nm to 60 nm...waters from Intracoastal City, la to 
Cameron, la extending from 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from 
lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City, la extending 
from 20 nm to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$