413 
fxus63 kpah 041815 aaa 
afdpah 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
1215 PM CST Thursday Dec 4 2008 


Update... 
updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance. 


&& 


Discussion /issued 159 am CST Thursday Dec 4 2008/... 
biggest challenges with this package will be the system exiting 
the region this morning...a clipper on Saturday...then another 
storm system starting Monday night. 


At the time of this writing the cold front responsible for all of 
the recent rainfall was just south and east of our County Warning Area. The 
heaviest precipitation has also moved just south and east of our 
County Warning Area...but light precipitation is still falling generally south and east 
of a line from Owensboro to Mayfield Kentucky. As the colder air 
filters into the region...in some areas rain has briefly mixed 
with or changed to snow before ending. By 12z all precipitation should be 
southeast of our County Warning Area...but still may have to include a pre first 
period in the zones. 


On Saturday a clipper system is still flirting with the extreme 
northeast corner of our County Warning Area...but will go with <=14 probability of precipitation at this 
time. However decided to mention a mix of sprinkles/flurries 
generally northeast of a line from West Salem Illinois to Rockport 
Indiana. 1000-850mb thicknesses would indicate all precipitation to be of 
the frozen variety...but model soundings dont show it quite cold 
enough in the moisture bearing layer for ice nucleation...so went 
with a mix. This system will push another cold front across the 
Heartland on Saturday which will mainly serve to usher in the next 
area of high pressure. 


This high pressure will keep the region dry and cooler through 
Monday...but starting Monday night the next weather maker will 
begin to affect the area and continue to do so through Tuesday night. 
Depending on the exact track of this system...it has the potential 
of producing greater than one inch of rainfall over the entire 
County Warning Area. Precipitation should remain liquid through Tuesday...but Tuesday 
night precipitation may mix with or change to snow before ending. No 
snow accumulation is expected at this time. Made no adjustments to 
the grids beyond Saturday. 


&& 


Aviation... 
generally clear skies may give way to some VFR ceilings above 10 kft 
later today. No visibility restrictions expected. North winds may 
gust near 20 miles per hour at times this afternoon...but should settle down 
late in the day. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Public.....Jap 
aviation...meffert