147 
fxus63 kpah 041130 aaa 
afdpah 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
530 am CST Thursday Dec 4 2008 


Update... 
updated aviation section for 12z tafs. 


&& 


Discussion /issued 159 am CST Thursday Dec 4 2008/... 
biggest challenges with this package will be the system exiting 
the region this morning...a clipper on Saturday...then another 
storm system starting Monday night. 


At the time of this writing the cold front responsible for all of 
the recent rainfall was just south and east of our County Warning Area. The 
heaviest precipitation has also moved just south and east of our 
County Warning Area...but light precipitation is still falling generally south and east 
of a line from Owensboro to Mayfield Kentucky. As the colder air 
filters into the region...in some areas rain has briefly mixed 
with or changed to snow before ending. By 12z all precipitation should be 
southeast of our County Warning Area...but still may have to include a pre first 
period in the zones. 


On Saturday a clipper system is still flirting with the extreme 
northeast corner of our County Warning Area...but will go with <=14 probability of precipitation at this 
time. However decided to mention a mix of sprinkles/flurries 
generally northeast of a line from West Salem Illinois to Rockport 
Indiana. 1000-850mb thicknesses would indicate all precipitation to be of 
the frozen variety...but model soundings dont show it quite cold 
enough in the moisture bearing layer for ice nucleation...so went 
with a mix. This system will push another cold front across the 
Heartland on Saturday which will mainly serve to usher in the next 
area of high pressure. 


This high pressure will keep the region dry and cooler through 
Monday...but starting Monday night the next weather maker will 
begin to affect the area and continue to do so through Tuesday night. 
Depending on the exact track of this system...it has the potential 
of producing greater than one inch of rainfall over the entire 
County Warning Area. Precipitation should remain liquid through Tuesday...but Tuesday 
night precipitation may mix with or change to snow before ending. No 
snow accumulation is expected at this time. Made no adjustments to 
the grids beyond Saturday. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR ceilings will give way to sky clear-sct150 skies by middle morning. Winds 
will continue from the northwest at 10 to 15 kts with gusts near 20 
kts through the day. Between 22z and 03z...northwest winds will 
decrease to 8 kts or less as a scattered-bkn150 cloud deck returns and 
persists into the morning hours Friday. Dry air in place over the 
region should prevent any restrictions to visibilities. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Public.....Jap 
aviation...rst