212 
fxus63 kpah 180840 
afdpah 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
340 am CDT Thursday Mar 18 2010 


Discussion... 
clouds were finally on the way out of the region as a surface and middle 
level ridge axis approached. With subsidence occurring...drier and 
warmer conditions will be seen over the next couple of days. Winds 
in the mixing layer will be light today...limiting mixing down of 
drier air to the surface somewhat. The source region of low level air 
will shift during the day from nearly to wrly with the approach of 
the ridge axis. The highest temperatures of this forecast package will occur 
on Friday...as low level warm air advection increases ahead of a large wave of low 
pressure and a frontal system. 


The European model (ecmwf)/GFS continue to show this system as developing into a 
closed middle/upper low and surface low to its east by Sat. The tight middle 
level low is prognosticated by the latest model runs to move across 
Arkansas...northern MS and Tennessee during the weekend. The current forecast position 
of the low south of the pah forecast area should limit the potential 
of damaging wind...however some hail will be possible ahead of the 
low due to cold air aloft near the low. Timing of this event is 
still subject to some change. Sunday should be a raw day for sure. 
Temperatures should rebound next week as a broad middle/upper level ridge 
builds into the region. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions today and tonight. A few cumulus possible today. Surface 
ridge moving across the region means winds gradually back to the 
northwest...generally below 10 kts. A few gusts in the teens possible due 
to steep low level lapse rates. Winds should be light south-southwest tonight. 
A few high clouds possible. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Public...db 
aviation/fire weather...cn