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fxus61 Kiln 041801 
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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio 
101 PM EST Thursday Dec 4 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build into the region from the west today. 
The high will continue to build across the region through late 
Friday...while a deep upper trough settles into the eastern United 
States. A clipper system will drop through the region Saturday and 
Saturday night. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
surface high pressure will continue to build into the region 
today. Shallow moisture and cold air advection will keep stratocumulus clouds 
across the forecast area. Skies will be mostly cloudy north to 
partly sunny and locally mostly sunny south and west. Temperatures 
will remain nearly steady in the upper 20s to lower 30s. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday/... 
surface high will continue to build in tonight. A weak upper trough 
will drop through the region overnight which may bring an increase 
in clouds...but with high pressure and a dry airmass at the 
surface...no precipitation is expected. 


The next system to impact the area will be a weak clipper on 
Saturday. Midlevel positive vorticity advection and some low level isentropic lift with 
this system will likely favor a band of -sn dropping southeast 
into the County Warning Area Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. However...lift 
ahead of this system is not expected to be deep or prolonged 
enough to significantly saturate the airmass...so will hold off 
on increasing probability of precipitation to likely for now. Another area of high 
pressure will build in behind this system on Sunday...and temperatures 
will remain well below normal. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
high pressure traveling across Kentucky will provide a period of 
dry weather on Monday. A front may supply rain and snow showers on 
Tuesday...changing to all snow before ending on Wednesday. 


Expect temperatures to remain below normal through the period. Highs 
in the 30s are forecast for Saturday and Sunday...with low 40s 
creeping into the south on Monday. Most locations will reach the 40s 
on Tuesday...before readings slip back into the 30s for Wednesday. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
surface high pressure will build across the Ohio Valley region 
through the taf period. Shallow moisture and cold air advection in the wake of a 
cold front will keep MVFR ceilings across the northern taf sites through 
the afternoon hours...becoming scattered after 23z. An upper level 
trough axis is forecast to pass across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio 
Valley region between 12z and 00z. This system will bring some 
high level cloudiness with it. Low level cumulus/stratocumulus will 
develop around 15z Thursday due to shallow moisture and daytime 
heating. 




Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday...Sunday and again 
Tuesday. 


&& 


Iln watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Hickman 
near term...Hickman 
short term...hawblitzel 
long term...coniglio 
aviation...Hickman