396 
fxus63 kict 042106 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
306 PM CST Thursday Dec 4 2008 


Discussion... 


Tonight-Fri: 


Potential for some flurries early...but will be a battle with low 
level dry air...as evidenced with surface dewpoints falling into 
the single digits. This dry air could make minimums a challenge 
tonight...especially in the north where clearing is anticipated. On 
Friday...limited mixing will counteract insolation limiting warmup. 


Friday night-Sun: 


Cold air starts filtering into the area Friday night and continue 
on Sat. Both European centre for medium range weather forecasts 
model/global forecast system model have surface temperatures in the 
upper 30s at 0000 UTC sun. While model output statistics has 
trended down...have still undercut coldest model output statistics 
by a degree or two. Some rebound on sun...but given cool 
start/inversion/limited mixing will have pretty large gradient in 
temperatures from west to east. 


Monday-Thu: 


Fair agreement between models...but with large thermal gradients... 
there will be a lot of bust potential. Main story is the persistent 
northwest flow which keeps series of shortwaves moving through. 
1040 millibar Canadian high west drop into the plains...with 
temperatures plunging well below climatology. Continue the trend 
from yesterday of slashing temperatures for middle-late week. The 
two most telling features are global forecast system model model 
output statistics maxes for Tuesday-Thursday are 10 degree below 
climatology...and that the 0000 UTC run of European centre for 
medium range weather forecasts model has a surface temperatures in 
the lower 20s for 12/00 UTC. At this time best chance of 
precipitation still appears to be on Monday/Monday night...especially 
east of I-35. Forecast grids where heavily based on 0000 UTC 
European centre for medium range weather forecasts model. -Howerton 


&& 


Aviation...18z tafs...krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 


Areas of light snow and flurries will affect portions of western 
and central Kansas this afternoon/evening. Rsl terminal may experience 
a period of light snow/flurries with visibilities of 3-5sm this afternoon. 
No more than a dusting is anticipated. Farther east...low-levels 
will be too dry for anything other than a few light flurries to 
reach ground level for terminals such as hut...ict and sln. Ceilings 
will be lowest for rsl terminal...with ceilings 2500-4500 feet above ground level. 
Elsewhere...ceilings will be no lower than 6000-7000 feet above ground level. Chances 
for flurries could linger tonight for southern Kansas...including 
ict and hut terminals...but no accumulations are 
anticipated...not even a dusting. 


Kleinsasser 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 24 40 28 47 / 10 10 10 10 
Hutchinson 22 39 28 46 / 10 10 10 10 
Newton 22 38 28 44 / 10 10 10 10 
Eldorado 22 39 29 45 / 10 10 0 10 
Winfield-kwld 24 41 27 48 / 10 10 0 10 
Russell 18 40 27 45 / 10 10 10 10 
Great Bend 20 39 27 46 / 10 10 10 10 
Salina 18 41 28 45 / 10 10 10 10 
McPherson 21 39 27 45 / 10 10 10 10 
Coffeyville 21 40 28 47 / 10 10 0 10 
Chanute 19 39 28 44 / 10 10 0 10 
Iola 19 38 28 43 / 10 10 0 10 
Parsons-kppf 21 39 28 46 / 10 10 0 10 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$