168 
fxus63 kict 041604 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
1004 am CST Thursday Dec 4 2008 


Update... 
an elongated middle/upper trough dropping south across the northern 
Continental U.S. Along with a potential vorticity anomaly approaching from 
eastern Colorado is acting on a middle-level baroclinic zone this 
morning...which has resulted in a band of light snow and flurries 
across western Kansas. Anticipate the best/most persistent lift will 
remain over portions of western Kansas today...where the best chance 
for accumulations will reside. The eastern fringe of this better 
lift will graze far western portions of the Wichita forecast area 
today...which will result in widespread flurries and localized 
light snow. However...lack of appreciable lift and instability in 
concert with dry sub-cloud conditions and relatively warm ground 
temperatures will preclude accumulating snowfall. However...a 
dusting will be possible for areas west of Interstate 135...more 
specifically portions of Harper...Kingman...Reno...Rice and Barton 
counties. For tonight...the area of lift and associated chances of 
flurries will affect southern portions of the forecast area...but 
once again accumulating snowfall is not anticipated. 


Kleinsasser 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 542 am CST Thursday Dec 4 2008/ 


Aviation...12z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 
Canadian high pressure will continue to build into the area this 
afternoon and tonight. Meanwhile...another potential vorticity 
anomaly will move in from The Rockies into the plains. This 
disturbance will have very limited moisture to work with to 
produce any measurable precipitation. Although...it will have enough 
to keep clouds around with ceilings generally in the VFR category 
(5-10kft). Hillsboro profiler is showing northerly flow above the 
inversion...so we anticipate mainly northerly winds today with the 
wind becoming light and variable this evening as the surface high 
settles in. 


Cox 


Previous discussion... /issued 312 am CST Thursday Dec 4 2008/ 


Discussion... 
main forecast concern is temperatures over the next couple days. 


Today-tonight: 
upper air analysis is showing a broad longwave trough over the 
country this morning...with some pieces of energy rotating through 
it being seen on water vapor imagery. Surface temperatures across 
the forecast area dropped quickly last evening with dry air in 
place...but have slowed considerably as cloud cover moves in. This 
cloud cover will persist through tonight as the next piece of energy 
swings through. Looks like the best chance for some flurries will be 
over central Kansas both today and tonight...although could not rule 
out a few flakes over south central Kansas as well. 


With the cloud cover over the area and weak surface 
winds...temperatures will again be in the 30s across the forecast 
area. Cloud cover will prevent temperatures from falling as much as 
they would if we would be able to radiate out...but with cold 
airmass in place we expect overnight lows to be quite chilly as 
well. Most locations will see temperatures drop into the teens. 


Friday-saturday: 
this will be a relatively quiet period as high pressure moves off to 
the east and the forecast area gets into northwest flow aloft. A 
surface front will come through Friday night/Saturday morning...but 
there will not be much moisture or forcing to work with to produce 
measurable precipitation. 


While temperatures will warm some during this period...have 
continued the trend of the previous forecaster to be a couple 
degrees below guidance given the cloud cover and relatively light 
winds. 


Sunday-wednesday: 
there are still some significant differences between the European model (ecmwf) and 
GFS solutions during this time. With this in mind...no significant 
changes were made to the going forecast. Big picture though is 
showing an upper trough swinging through on Tuesday. There are 
enough differences among the models on Wednesday that just about 
anyone could find a model to suit his or her needs...especially 
regarding high temperatures. Needless to say...confidence is low for 
this portion of the forecast. 


Schreck 


Aviation...06z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 


Mainly VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. The concern 
will be a middle level deck of Alto cumulus moving across the area after 
09-12/Thursday with ceilings around 6k feet. This middle level cloud deck 
may squeeze out some snow flurries across central Kansas near krsl and 
ksln after 18z/Thu. Some differences on how much moisture will be 
available for this snow chance...with minimal impact to aviation so 
will not include this in the tafs at this time. But will certainly 
have to keep an eye on this as Thursday continues. 


Ketcham 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 34 20 40 27 / 10 10 10 10 
Hutchinson 32 20 39 28 / 10 10 10 10 
Newton 33 19 38 30 / 10 10 10 10 
Eldorado 34 20 39 30 / 10 10 10 10 
Winfield-kwld 36 20 41 30 / 10 10 10 10 
Russell 30 17 41 24 / 10 10 10 10 
Great Bend 30 16 40 27 / 10 10 10 10 
Salina 31 19 39 29 / 10 10 10 10 
McPherson 31 20 38 29 / 10 10 10 10 
Coffeyville 38 19 41 31 / 10 10 10 10 
Chanute 36 18 39 31 / 10 10 10 10 
Iola 35 18 39 30 / 10 10 10 10 
Parsons-kppf 37 18 40 31 / 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$