274 
fxus63 kddc 042118 
afdddc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
318 PM CST Thursday Dec 4 2008 


Discussion... 


Days 1-2... 


An upper level shortwave trough stretching from the Great Lakes into 
Colorado will move south across southwest Kansas overnight. The 
models show the mean layers becoming less saturated by midnight and 
decreasing rapidly be 12z. Current moderate snow band stretching 
from Scott City to near Kinsley is rapidly decreasing as 750mb 
frontogenetical forcing weakens. Current thinking is will have the 
best chance for any measurable snow out toward the Colorado border 
but even that area should be less than an inch and may be a tenth 
elsewhere. Will go with a 30 to 40 pop into midnight from Dodge City 
and west, then quickly taper to 10 pop by 10 to 12z in the east as 
the upper level wave moves east and layer relative humidities drops 
rapidly. 


Overnight lows tonight should be in the upper teens west to around 
22 southeast with clouds decreasing late in the north and west. 
Winds should be light easterly becoming south to southwest by 
morning. 


On Friday look for decreasing low clouds but high level cloudiness 
may be on the increase. Current highs around 40 look good. On Friday 
night a low pressure trough will move east and shift southwest winds 
to the west to northwest overnight. Models also show high level 
cloudiness again increasing. Lows in the middle to upper 20s look good 
compared with guidance. On Saturday expect partly cloudy skies with 
light northwest winds becoming light and variable. Guidance has 
highs in the middle to upper 50s west to lower 50s east. Will hedge 
slightly cooler with wet ground from the upper 40s northeast to 
upper 50s southwest. 


Days 3-7... 


The 12z suite of models are in better agreement than yesterday. 
The UKMET/GFS/ECMWF are very similar with the large scale pattern 
through 84 hours. The upper system prognosticated to close off over the 
Desert Southwest by Sunday is handled similarly by these models. 
But then the European model (ecmwf)/UKMET diverge from the GFS by digging another 
shortwave trough into the southern rockies. While the lead system 
may not bring significant precipitation to western KS, it may help to 
moisten up the low and middle levels so that the 2nd system has more 
moisture to work with. The trailing system is advertised by the 
European model (ecmwf)/UKMET/Canadian to dig into the southern rockies by 
Monday night, and then eject eastward into south Texas by Monday 
before undergoing significant baroclinic development. As the system 
approaches western Kansas it will probably be positively tilted, so 
strong cold advection at low to middle levels will tend to discourage 
heavy precipitation development as the system passes to our west. Despite 
the cold advection at low levels, middle level frontogenesis and deep 
layer moisture may be enough to produce measurable snow across parts 
of the forecast area Monday night. Any rain that does fall should 
quickly change to snow in such a pattern, but large amounts of 
precipitation will probably not occur since strong baroclinic development 
will be well to our southeast. 


After this system passes, the Canadian and European model (ecmwf) develop a large 
upper trough over much of central and western Continental U.S.. this pattern 
may eventually deliver an extended period of very cold air into the 
plains. Maxes by Dec 11-13 could be in the 20s or even colder. 


&& 


Aviation... 


Ceilings will remain between 5000 and 8000 feet through 12z, with 
rapid clearing thereafter. Only a few flurries can be expected. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 18 40 25 53 / 40 10 0 0 
gck 16 41 24 54 / 40 10 0 0 
eha 17 43 27 58 / 20 0 0 0 
lbl 18 43 25 56 / 20 0 0 0 
hys 16 40 25 47 / 20 10 0 0 
p28 21 41 27 51 / 20 10 0 0 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Fn06/24