914 
fxus63 kddc 201944 
afdddc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
244 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Discussion... 


Days 1-2... 


Temperatures will be the main forecast concern for the period. 


The upper trough axis was centered over the Texas Panhandle as of 
12z, and WV loop shows it has moved eastward into OK. The 700mb 
low center was over the Kansas/OK border, and most of the heaviest 
snowfall amounts have been to our south and east. Cold air is 
firmly in place over the Western Plains, with -11 c and 850mb and 
temperatures struggling to get to 30 f at the surface. The western counties 
have started to see some sun, but clouds and even a few flurries 
have lingered over the eastern counties this afternoon. Surface high 
pressure was centered over western neb, but there continued to be 
enough gradient from the low over Arkansas and mixing to bring advisory 
level winds this afternoon. Models show speed going down after 
00z, and this seems to fit with observation over northwestern Kansas. Will 
keep an eye on trends, but plan to let the Wind Advisory expire as 
scheduled at 21z. 


The upper low will move off towards the Texarkana region tonight, 
leaving the Western Plains in northerly flow aloft. The surface high 
will weaken somewhat, but there should still be plenty of 
subsidence and clearing clouds. Winds will be on the decrease, and 
dewpoints will only be in the teens to low 20s. Lows tonight 
should bottom out around there, although locations in the north 
that saw 2-3 inches of snow may be a few degrees colder. The upper 
low will continue to move slowly eastward tomorrow. The surface high 
will weaken even more, with a Lee trough beginning to develop. 
Temperatures will begin to recover and there should be plenty of sun. 
However, areas near the snowpack to our south and east could be 
slow to warm, so continued the trend of slightly cooler temperatures 
there. Sunday's highs should be well into the 50s in the west, but 
cooler around p28. 


Weak ridging will start to build in between systems Sunday night 
and into Monday. The Lee surface trough will continue to deepen, with 
south to southwesterly winds increasing. Mixing and some slightly higher 
dewpoints will help keep Sunday night lows in the 20s. A few high 
clouds will start to move in by Monday afternoon, but there should 
be plenty of sunshine. Continued to go with highs in the 60s to 
near 70 in the southwestern counties. 


Days 3-7... 


A high pressure ridge will still be nudging from SW to NE over 
western Kansas Tuesday, allowing for quite warm temperatures in the middle 60s 
for most locations. Another upper low will slide down the west side 
of the ridge, cutting off in the vicinity of the 4 corners area 
Wednesday morning. Short waves ejecting northeast from this low 
could bring some light rain or showers to our County Warning Area late Tuesday night 
into Wednesday. Then on Wednesday afternoon, as the upper low 
tracks east through Oklahoma, we could see some more snow in our County Warning Area 
from the wrap around cold air. Just how cold the surface will be is 
the big question, and thus the chance probability of precipitation of 25-30 percent for rain 
or snow seem good right now. The latest European model (ecmwf) model run definitely 
indicates snow Wednesday night, especially in our western-most 
counties. Will wait at least one more run of the models before 
changing precipitation type to all snow. I did lower maximum temperatures down a few 
degrees in our western 1/3rd County Warning Area or so Wednesday, to account for the 
thick clouds and possible precipitation. Thursday could be cooler than 
presently forecast also, but the surrounding isc grids support highs 
in the middle 40s northwest to lower 50s southeast. There should be another warming 
trend set in Friday into Saturday (and perhaps sunday). Highs 
Friday under mostly sunny skies will top out in the upper 50s in the 
north and range to the middle 60s in the south. Saturday should see 
similar maximum t's. Mins will generally be in the 30s through the 
extended period. 


&& 


Aviation... 


North winds of 20 to 30 kts will howl at the ddc and gck taf sites 
through 21z, then become northwest at 10 to 20 miles per hour by 00z. A scattered to 
broken MVFR deck of clouds in the 025-030 range was flowing through the 
taf sites, but should give way to nearly clear skies by 00z. Winds 
will drop off to northwest at 11-12kts after 00z. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 17 51 23 64 / 0 0 0 0 
gck 17 53 21 67 / 0 0 0 0 
eha 23 55 29 70 / 0 0 0 0 
lbl 20 54 27 70 / 0 0 0 0 
hys 14 51 21 64 / 0 0 0 0 
p28 22 47 23 60 / 10 0 0 0 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ this afternoon for 
ksz061>066-074>081-084>090. 


&& 


$$ 


Fn26/12/12