733 
fxus63 kind 191732 cca 
afdind 


Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
131 PM EDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Aviation... 
/18z tafs/ 
taf sites will start this period with generally clear skies/high 
clouds...and then low clouds will slowly start filtering in this 
evening as a cold front approaches central Indiana. Anticipate 
skies to become overcast shortly after midnight...but VFR 
conditions will continue with ceilings around 5k. It isn/T until 
the Sat 12-15z time frame that conditions will fall to MVFR 
category...when rain starts moving into the vicinity with 
aforementioned cold front. Conditions will remain at MVFR category 
through remainder of taf period. 


Southwest winds will increase a bit this afternoon with sustained 
speeds of 12 kts and gusts to 20 kts ahead of front. 
Currently...did not insert gusts into grids. But...may have to 
insert tempo for gusts up to 22kts over the next few hours. Will 
continue to monitor. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 927 am EDT Friday Mar 19 2010/ 


Update... 
forecast right on track to be another beautiful...seasonably warm 
early Spring day. Made a few minor tweaks to temperatures...mainly 
to account for current trends. High level clouds will slowly 
increase throughout today/tonight ahead of our next system. 


Previous discussion... /issued 639 am EDT Friday Mar 19 2010/ 


Discussion... 


Forecast focus is on chances for rain as well as temperatures from 
Saturday into Monday. 


At 06z high pressure was across the southern USA...while a cold 
front extended from Wisconsin into Kansas. 


Models are in decent agreement with most features. Will use a 
blend...leaning toward ensemble means in some cases. See below for 
details. 


Today as the upper ridge moves across high clouds will move across 
the area. Temperatures have been running higher than MOS and Don/T 
believe high clouds will be thick enough to prevent this again...so 
went a little above MOS for highs. 


Tonight the cold front will move into northwest sections of the 
area...but with limited moisture and forcing expect nothing more 
than an increase in clouds. Went closer to cooler side of MOS 
numbers behind the front and closer to warmer side of MOS numbers 
ahead of the front. 


On Saturday the front will sink slowly southeast across the area. 
Moisture will increase during the day...but forcing is still 
relatively weak. Will go with just chance probability of precipitation. High temperatures 
will be tricky with front in the area. Sref mean seems to cover the 
spread better...so went close to sref for highs. 


Front remains in the area on Saturday night...but best lift will 
still be southwest of the area closer to a surface low. Continued 
chance probability of precipitation. 


Isentropic lift ramps up on Sunday with approach of surface low...so 
likely probability of precipitation look best. Lift continues into Sunday night...so went 
likely probability of precipitation then too. Added chance probability of precipitation to Monday as the area will 
still be under the influence of upper low across Tennessee. 


Coldest air looks to be actually south of the area on Sunday so have 
raised temperatures a bit then and Sunday night. The warmer expected 
temperatures will keep precipitation as rain so have removed snow 
mention. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Update...smf 
public...50 
aviation...tdud