632 
fxus63 koax 201946 
afdoax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
246 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Discussion...tonight through Saturday. 


Large scale flow per WV imagery showing upper level trough over the 
central U.S. Exiting east in response to progressive upstream 
ridge situated over The Rockies. Meanwhile...large/cold surface 
high pressure was i9n control over the central and western Continental U.S.. 
appears that dry conditions along with a warming trend is on tap 
sun-Tuesday over the region in response to increasing 500mb heights over 
the Heartland. By Tuesday...shortwave trough approaching the Great 
Lakes region drags attendant cold front through the Dakotas and into the 
Central Plains. Believe latest forecasts are overdoing quantitative precipitation forecast. Moisture 
availability not all that impressive and brunt of dynamic forcing 
found farther south associated with duel shortwaves approaching the 
Southern Plains. Thus will opt for dry forecast with this frontal passage. Surface high 
pressure builds in from the north Tuesday night and pushes the 
frontal boundary into Texas/OK/MO by Wednesday afternoon. Aforementioned southern 
shortwave begins to close off as it tracks eastward across Kansas/OK on 
Thursday. With GFS/ecm/CMC in decent agreement showing dynamic lift 
increasing in vicinity of the southern County Warning Area...believe small probability of precipitation are reasonable Wednesday 
night and Thursday mainly for areas south of I-80. Leading into next 
weekend...models are advertising another Canadian cold airmass 
preparing to sweep southward into the lower 48. Latest HPC surface graphics are 
depicting a backdoor front advancing westward into the region all the way 
to western Kansas/eastern OK/southern Arkansas by 12z Sat. Meanwhile the GFS/ecm are 
advertising surface cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado hindering westward advancement 
of cold air advection...and for the most part stalls the boundary a bit east of the 
MO River Valley. Prefer to favor GFS/ecm scenario and leave forecast dry and 
warm day 6/7. 


&& 


Aviation... 
taf sites ofk/koma/klnk 


18z tafs 


VFR conditions at all taf sites through the period. 


&& 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Iowa...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Dee/Dewald