509 
fxus62 ktbw 220125 
afdtbw 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
925 PM EDT sun Mar 21 2010 


Discussion...the main area of convection has pushed south of the 
area this evening...with some light showers remaining over the 
central and southern coastal waters. These may move onshore later 
tonight as well as a few showers may be possible across the north 
as another trough moves through the area. Have lowered overnight 
probability of precipitation to 20-30 percent across the area however as the main front as 
pushed east of the area. Will update zones for this change. Temperatures 
look on track to fall into the middle 40s-upper 50s. 


&& 


Aviation...prevailing MVFR/IFR ceilings will impact the terminal 
sites through 22/14z. Between 2214/2218z VFR conditions with 
tempo MVFR ceilings in the fl020-025 range can be expected. VFR 
expected after 22/18z. West to northwest surface winds around 10 
knots the rest of tonight will increase into the 15 to 25 knot 
range after 22/14z on Monday...with gusts up to 30 knots possible 
after 22/18z. 


&& 


Marine...buoys reporting winds of 15 to 20 knots north of Tampa 
Bay...and near shore around 10 knots from Tampa Bay south. Seas 
have increase to 7-9 feet offshore. The Small Craft Advisory will 
remain in place through Tuesday afternoon as winds will increase 
across the area overnight behind the front. Then high pressure 
will build into the area Monday allowing winds to subside...but 
with the westerly fetch will keep seas above 7 feet into Tuesday. 
No major changes for the update. 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for Bonita Beach to 
Englewood out 20 nm-Bonita Beach to Englewood out 20 to 60 
nm-Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20 nm-Englewood to 
Tarpon Springs out 20 to 60 nm-Tarpon Springs to Suwannee 
River out 20 nm-Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River out 20 to 
60 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term/marine/fire weather...24/Colson 
long term/aviation...57/McMichael