457 
fxus62 kmlb 210830 
afdmlb 


East central Florida forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
329 am EST Friday Nov 21 2008 


Discussion... 


Today...short range models in agreement in moving another 
reinforcing dry cold front across east central Florida today with 
breezy northwest winds developing this afternoon. Limited moisture will 
spell mostly sunny skies but cooler temperatures are expected across 
far northern sections in the lower 60s as cold air advection sets in during 
the late morning and afternoon hours. Highs will be a bit warmer 
across southern sections in the lower 70s. 


Tonight...pressure gradient will tighten overnight as high pressure 
builds into the southeast states. Surface pressure gradient from jax-mia increases 
from around 6 mb to 8 mb overnight as northerly winds veer to the 
NE. Expect breezy conditions for coastal sections through the night and 
windy at the beaches. As low level flow veers...marine stratocu layer 
should move onshore bringing variable cloudiness to the coastal 
counties. Min temperatures will range from middle-upper 30s across Lake County 
to the middle 50s along the Martin County coast. 


Sat-Mon...large high pressure center over the southeast during the 
weekend will slowly migrate eastward to the Carolina coast on Sunday. 
Brisk onshore flow Saturday will gradually veer while decreasing in 
speed early in the week. Temperatures will moderate each period with stable 
NE flow and scattered marine clouds working ashore. A few light showers will 
be possible over the marine area and Gulf Stream sun-Monday but chances 
too low to mention over land. 


Tue-Fri...an upper wave pivoting across the southeast region will drag the 
next cold front across the area on Tuesday. Front expected to pass with 
little fanfare and pop chances/moisture have lessen with latest global 
model guidance. No significant cooldown/freeze is anticipated. For now 
will hold onto to isolated showers across the area Tuesday with Post 
frontal drying at midweek and continuing through the end of the 
workweek. 


&& 


Aviation... 
dry cold fnt will move across east central Florida today with northwest winds 
increasing to near 15 kts and becoming gusty to 20-22 knots by 
late afternoon. Increasing NE flow Friday night with g18-24 kts possible for 
coastal terminals. MVFR ceilings moving onshore from Atlantic late Friday night for 
kmlb/kvrb...othw mainly clear inland. 


&& 


Marine... 
deteriorating marine conds this afternoon into tonight as winds 
increase behind the cold front moving across the waters by early 
afternoon. Will raise advisory across the offshore legs this morning 
and near shore legs by this afternoon as northwest winds increase over 20 
knots. Flow veers tonight and increases from the NE as pressure gradient 
tightens to 8mb from jax-mia. NE winds 20-25 knots overnight with 
seas building to 5-7 feet near shore and 8-10 feet offshore. Small Craft Advisory 
conditions forecast to continue over all waters into Saturday 
afternoon with slow decrease in seas/swell on Sunday. Next front Tuesday 
will increase winds and seas...however headlines are not expected 
over the entire marine area 


&& 


Fire weather...marginal duration of low relative humidity expected between 2 PM 
and 5 PM this afternoon for northwest interior sections. Northwest winds will also 
increase to near 15 miles per hour. Lowest rhs forecasts across Lake County where 
NAM forecasts lowest dewpoints...and min rhs around 34 percent. This is in line 
with GFS MOS guidance as well and will raise a red flag warning for Lake 
County for low relative humidity and wind. Areas surrounding Lake County will also 
see winds approach 15 miles per hour sustained with min rhs around ~35 percent. Will 
highlight these conditions in the fwf. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
dab 62 43 60 47 / 0 0 0 10 
mco 66 44 64 50 / 0 0 0 10 
mlb 69 47 66 53 / 0 0 0 10 
vrb 71 51 67 56 / 0 0 0 10 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...red flag warning from noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon for 
Northern Lake-Southern Lake. 


Am...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST 
Saturday for coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Volusia 
Brevard County line out 20 nm-coastal waters from Volusia 
Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet out 20 nm. 


Small Craft Advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 am EST 
Sunday for waters from Flagler Beach to Volusia Brevard 
County line 20 to 60 nm offshore-waters from Sebastian Inlet to 
Jupiter Inlet 20 to 60 nm offshore-waters from Volusia 
Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet 20 to 60 nm offshore. 


Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 am EST 
Sunday for coastal waters from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter 
Inlet out 20 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term/aviation...volkmer 
long term....pendergrast