918 
fxus64 kmob 192327 aaa 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion...aviation update 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
625 PM CDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Aviation...VFR ceilings expected through the period. Clouds will be 
increasing and gradually lowering through the day on Saturday as a 
cold front approaches. Rain will likely hold off until after this 
taf period. /13 




..previous discussion issued at 340 PM CDT... 


Short term...(tonight through Monday night)both the upper ridge and 
surface high pressure will be east of forecast area by Saturday 
morning. This will allow a moisture return back into the area with 
precipitable water values less than an inch Saturday afternoon 
increasing to about an inch and a half by midnight Saturday...just 
in advance of the surface trough and associated cold front. The 
southerly low level jet will peak between midnight and 6 am before 
becoming more westerly. This also around the time the middle level jet 
rounds the base of the trough. A wide spread severe weather event is 
not anticipated due to marginal cape values and dew points mainly in 
the low and middle 50s Saturday night. Dew points do increase over the 
eastern sections Sunday morning but the better dynamics will have 
moved north of the area by then. For now just a very small section 
of southeast Mississippi is outlooked for slight risk of severe 
Saturday night. Strong winds with the squall line and possibly some 
severe storms in isolated cells ahead of the line Saturday evening. 
Sunday should be a breezy day with mostly partly cloudy skies except 
remaining cloudy with a slight chance of rain over the north and 
northeast. Light rain may continue over the north into Sunday 
evening as the moisture and cloudiness wrapping around the upper low 
drifts south into the area. Clearing but cool during the day Monday. 
Low temperatures mostly in the upper 30s for Monday night...lower 
40s along the coast. /11 


Long term...(tuesday through friday)made no changes to the extended 
period. Period starts out cool but warms up by middle week with a 
chance of showers and thunderstorms the second half of the week. /11 


&& 


Marine...a light onshore flow will continue through tonight as 
high pressure moves east of the marine area. Southerly winds and 
seas will build Saturday afternoon through Saturday night in 
response to a developing area of low pressure and surface cold front 
approaching from the west. Ahead of the front showers and 
thunderstorms can be expected with the best coverage occurring late 
Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Some storms may be strong. 
In the wake of the front a strong westerly flow can be expected 
Sunday and Sunday night becoming northwest and gradually decreasing 
late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. As a result small 
craft advisories will likely be required Sat night through Monday 
morning. 32/ee 


&& 


Fire weather...surface humidity dropped to around 30 percent over 
the interior Panhandle around 2 PM this afternoon but was expected 
to increase by 3 to 4 PM as a sea breeze moves inland. Humidity will 
increase through the afternoon on Saturday as winds pick up from the 
south in advance of another cold front. The front will bring showers 
and thunderstorms to the area overnight Saturday with drier and 
breezy conditions expected by Sunday afternoon. /11 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 46 70 51 60 / 00 05 80 40 
Pensacola 49 69 57 63 / 00 05 60 60 
Destin 50 67 59 65 / 00 05 50 70 
Evergreen 40 73 50 60 / 00 00 60 70 
Waynesboro 40 72 46 54 / 00 05 80 40 
Camden 40 72 48 59 / 05 00 70 60 
Crestview 39 74 53 65 / 00 00 50 70 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$