970 
fxus65 kpub 201042 
afdpub 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado 
442 am MDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Short term... 
(today and tonight) 


..a few lingering snow showers with brisk winds on the plains 
otherwise storm system is on its way out... 


Storm system is on its way out of Colorado this morning...headed 
into Texas. The last of some lingering snow showers are visible in 
radar loops...extending from north to south along the eastern 
mountains and adjacent plains this morning. However...intensities 
look light...with coverage gradually decreasing...so little 
additional accumulation expected in those areas where it is still 
snowing. Perhaps up to 1 inch additional snowfall in places like 
the Wet Mountains...the southern sangres or the Spanish Peaks 
region...where intensities look the heaviest at this time. After 
the morning activity winds down...could see redevelopment of some 
isolated snow showers over the mountains this afternoon...but for 
all practical purposes this storm is just about over. One other 
weather concern today is the wind. Winds are still a bit brisk over 
portions of the plains this morning. For instance...the Springfield 
ASOS...kspd...is still gusting over 30 miles per hour at times. Expect brisk 
winds to continue over the plains east of the I-25 corridor today. 


Bumped up temperature forecasts just a little across the lower elevations 
from the previous forecast. Since there is not a whole lot of snow 
cover at the lower elevations...the late March sun should boost 
readings into the 35 to 40 range along the lower Arkansas River 
valley on this first day of Spring 2010. Elsewhere...20s and 30s 
will be the rule. Lw 


Long term... 


(sunday-friday) 


Main long term concerns remain temperatures through the early part 
of next week along with increasing chances of widespread precipitation next 
Tuesday through Thursday. 


Sunday-Monday...warmer and drier weather returns to the region as 
upper level ridging builds across the state Sunday and then flattens 
overhead through the day Monday as a Pacific short wave moves across 
the northern tier of states. Warming aloft under building ridge and 
along with added downslope flow on Monday...should see temperatures 
at and above seasonal averages through the period with highs Monday 
approaching 70f once again across the eastern plains...though could 
be tempered somewhat by high level moisture streaming across The 
Rockies. 


Tuesday-Thursday...models in decent agreement of more Pacific energy 
digging across the Great Basin and trying to phase with southern 
stream energy moving across the desert SW resulting in a broad upper 
trough carving out across the Great Basin. Models differ with 
strength of system though all agree on bringing system across The 
Rockies through the period. This along with easterly flow deepening 
across the area as a cold front moves across eastern Colorado 
Tuesday afternoon...should allow for widespread precipitation to develop 
from west to east late Tuesday afternoon and persisting through the 
day Wednesday before diminishing from west to east through Wednesday 
night. Prognosticated system is not as cold as previous system with snow 
accumulations more likely confined to the higher terrain. At any 
rate...have started increasing probability of precipitation across the area through the 
period and will have to wait on later model runs to add the finer 
details. 


Thursday night and Friday...warmer and drier weather expected with 
the return of westerly flow aloft across the region. -Mw 


&& 


Aviation...areas of MVFR ceilings across the plains this morning...with 
local IFR and LIFR ceilings in the mountains. Ceilings will be improving 
all areas 15-18z leading to generally VFR conditions. However... 
the possibility of some spotty MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions will persist 
in and near the mountains through the day today due to isolated snow 
showers. Lw 




&& 


Pub watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


50/23