262 
fxus65 ktwc 210848 
afdtwc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
148 am MST Friday Nov 21 2008 


Synopsis...warm and dry conditions into early next week...with some 
gusty winds again today. A shift in the weather pattern is expected 
during the middle to latter portions of next week...as a couple of 
storm systems move into the West Coast. This will bring increasing 
clouds and cooler temperatures to Southeast Arizona...as well as a 
chance of showers. 


&& 


Discussion...the weather story for today will be gusty easterly 
winds as the surface pressure gradient tightens again this morning. 
Please refer to the fire weather section below for more details on 
this wind event. 


Some cooler air from the east will filter into Southeast Arizona 
by this afternoon for lower afternoon temperature readings. 
Otherwise...just looking at some high clouds spreading across the 
area. The big weather story for this forecast period will be the 
change to unsettled weather starting around the middle of next week. 
Latest medium range models were still advertising a couple of 
weather systems impacting the state...with the first one around 
Wednesday into Thursday followed by the second one Friday into next 
weekend. Both systems will bring a chance of precipitation to the 
area with much cooler daytime temperatures. The timing of each 
system was still uncertain...so will broad brush the pop values and 
weather grids Wednesday through Saturday. 


&& 


Fire weather...wind speeds are expected to increase early this 
morning. By the middle morning hours wind speeds in eastern fire 
weather zone 147 and western fire weather zone 148 may reach red 
flag criteria. However...relative humidity values are expected to 
remain above the 15 percent threshold through the middle morning hours. 
As the day progresses...wind speeds will start to diminish by the 
late morning hours and into afternoon hours...just as relative 
humidity values will be falling below 15 percent. Although a few 
locations may see short lived red flag conditions today...these 
conditions are not expected to be widespread or long lived enough to 
warrant the issuance of any additional fire weather products at this 
time. Crews in the field are encouraged to monitor conditions very 
closely. 


&& 


Aviation...scattered to broken high cirrus clouds will drift 
overhead across Southeast Arizona today. Surface winds will increase 
today as a gusty easterly gradient develops across much of the area. 
East to southeast winds in the 10-15 knot range will increase into 
the 15-20 knot range early this morning...with some gusts to near 30 
knots in favored locations for easterly wind events. Aviation 
discussion not amended for taf amendments. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Tucson