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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
1215 am CST Friday Nov 21 2008 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions are expected through 06z Saturday. A few middle/high 
clouds will be noted overnight and Friday. Breezy north/northwest 
winds overnight will relax on Friday. Winds will turn to the 
northeast/east with speeds from 6 to 10 knots. 
&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 207 PM CST Thursday Nov 20 2008/ 


Discussion... 
main concerns this forecast cycle are temperature forecast...especially 
lows tonight and Friday night...then chances of rain Sunday 
afternoon to Monday with the next system. 


The cold front continues to drift through Arkansas...and currently very 
close to the Arkansas/la state line. Colder air is filtering in over 
northern and central parts of the state...as the chilly north 
winds at 10 to 20 miles per hour spread over much of the state. Some isolated 
gusts to over 20 miles per hour...but will be isolated enough at this time 
not to reach lake Wind Advisory levels. Stratus clouds are 
thinning as then move south...so have seen some partly cloudy 
areas...while much has stayed mostly sunny. Some additional 
stratus and some middle clouds seen over Kansas to MO...but due to dry 
atmosphere and mixing...lower clouds should thin...but will have 
to monitor. 


Short term...tonight through Sunday night 
cold Canadian airmass filtering over Arkansas and the Southern Plains 
today through Saturday. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below 
normal...with critical lows tonight and Saturday morning reach 
some hard freeze numbers. Will issue a statement for possible hard 
freeze temperatures expected Friday and Saturday mornings over northern 
to parts of north central Arkansas. Otherwise...mostly sunny and cool days 
and mostly clear cold nights through Saturday. On Saturday... 
models depict a shortwave system moving across the upper plains... 
with only some possible clouds filtering in over the area. The 
surface high does move east during the day Saturday and into 
Sunday...the center is well east. Return flow will set up over the 
Central Plains...with some influence into the Southern Plains. 
Mild temperatures on Sunday...with a gradually increasing clouds. Slight 
chances of rain are in the forecast late day...and into the 
overnight Sunday. The surface system quickly moves across the 
upper plains...dragging the front through Arkansas early Monday. At this 
point mainly showers with overall low quantitative precipitation forecast is expected. 


Long term...Monday through Thanksgiving day 
extended models are in good agreement today. Cold front will be 
moving through the state Monday...with the most moisture and 
highest rain chances in eastern Arkansas. This front will move 
through quickly...with cooler and drier air following the front. 
High pressure will be over the area through the middle of the 
week...allowing dry conditions to continue. Model timing 
disagreements come into play for Thanksgiving day and beyond...as 
a low pressure system develops across the Southern Plains. For 
now...have left the Holiday dry...due to the timing and placement 
issues and will continue to monitor. 


&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$