386 
fxus64 klzk 202339 
afdlzk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
639 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Aviation... 


Conditions deteriorate significantly as the front pushes east 
across the state. Continue to expect MVFR and IFR ceilings and visible 
with the rainfall along and behind the front. Keep conditions 
dominant MVFR and IFR through much of the taf period as rain continues 
off and on through the taf period. Will see rain mix with snow/pl at 
hro overnight...then eventually to all snow tomorrow afternoon. 
However...just east...middle levels will be warm enough to see mainly 
rain...occasionally mixing with sn/pl. Further south...will see 
rain...occasionally mix with snow tomorrow afternoon. Snow growth zone 
then dries out during the late afternoon...with mainly dz possibly 
mixing with snow at central and southern sites. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 300 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010/ 


Discussion... 


Bulk of precipitation has been Post frontal today...with small storms 
popping up along the nearly stationary boundary this afternoon. 
Still wouldnt expect these storms to organize...with mostly cold 
rain expected the remainder of the afternoon. Have only isolated 
thunder mentioned. 


Models continuing to show cold air spill into the region from the 
west after sunset. Went ahead and started the ww advisory a few 
hours earlier...with snow already crossing the border. 


Models still showing coldest temperatures aloft to ride south and then 
east of the County Warning Area...with warm/dry air wrapping around into central 
Arkansas on Sunday. Went ahead and added sleet to parts of central 
and southern Arkansas Sunday night...with second wave to accompany 
the departing low. However with soil temperatures as warm as they 
are...did not go with any accumulation across south and east 
zones. 


Kept snow accumulations similar to last issuance...bumping them up 
slightly across extreme western Arkansas. Believe this will be the 
area to watch...with the most available moisture at the time the 
colder air arrives. Temperatures will be well cold enough across north 
Arkansas...but am concerned with the dry slot rotating around and 
cutting off moisture. 


Went with slight probability of precipitation into Monday morning...with more of a 
flurry/drizzle situation by this time. Temperatures will rebound through 
the week...with highs back in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Next 
weather maker will move in for thurs/Fri...bringing the next 
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Unlike the last set up...this 
upper low will be positioned further north with liquid precipitation 
only. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 42 46 37 55 / 100 100 60 30 
Camden Arkansas 34 41 34 56 / 100 90 40 10 
Harrison Arkansas 36 39 34 53 / 100 100 60 30 
Hot Springs Arkansas 36 40 33 55 / 100 90 50 20 
Little Rock Arkansas 40 42 35 55 / 100 90 60 20 
Monticello Arkansas 37 42 35 55 / 100 90 50 20 
Mount Ida Arkansas 35 39 33 55 / 100 90 40 10 
Mountain Home Arkansas 39 41 36 54 / 100 100 60 30 
Newport Arkansas 43 47 38 55 / 100 100 60 30 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 39 43 36 55 / 100 90 50 20 
Russellville Arkansas 37 40 34 54 / 100 100 60 20 
Searcy Arkansas 42 46 37 55 / 100 100 60 20 
Stuttgart Arkansas 41 46 37 55 / 100 90 60 20 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CDT Sunday for Boone-Johnson- 
Logan-Montgomery-Newton-Pike-Polk-Scott-Yell. 


&& 


$$ 




Aviation...62