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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
350 PM CST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Short term [tonight through Saturday night]...a few clouds will 
accompany a cold front that will move across the forecast area early 
this evening. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 20s to upper 20s 
inland and the lower 30s along the coast. Cooler high temperatures will 
occur on Saturday with readings only in the lower to middle 50s. Very 
cold temperatures expected Friday night under clear skies and 
diminishing winds...with lows in the lower to middle 20s inland 
areas...with upper 20s to lower 30s along the coastal zones. A hard 
freeze watch is in effect from late Friday night through Saturday 
morning for the inland areas. A cool dry air mass will persist 
through Saturday night. /22 


Long term [sunday through thursday]...surface high will move off 
the East Coast by Sunday...with return to seasonal temperatures through 
Tuesday. Gulf opens up at that time increasing chances of rain 
Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as a front approaches. 
GFS is downplaying surface cyclogenesis over the Gulf and instead 
developing the approaching a cold front as part of a low south of 
the Great Lakes. This is more congruent with the European model (ecmwf) which has not 
heralded Gulf cyclogenesis. Another high pressure will move in 
behind the front followed by more dry weather. /77 


&& 


Marine...a cold front will move south across the coastal waters 
late tonight...with a strong northerly wind...and resultant building 
seas developing. Strong winds will persist...but become more 
easterly through Friday night. As a result...a Small Craft Advisory 
will be in effect from midnight tonight until 6am Saturday morning. 
By middle morning Saturday...the easterly winds will weaken as high 
pressure moves off the southeast Atlantic coast...then a light to 
moderate east to southeast windflow will prevail into the early part 
of next week. 12/ds 


&& 


Fire weather...another dry cold front will pass through the region 
late this evening. A high behind that front will pour dry air into 
the region..and lowering relative humidity below red flag warning 
criteria for Alabama and western Florida. This will elevate the risk 
of explosive fire growth in the region. Red flag warnings have been 
issued for both Friday and Saturday across the western Florida 
Panhandle and southwest Alabama for long durations of low relative 
humidity below critical levels. /22 


&& 


Aviation (20/18z and 21/00z issuances)...visual flight rules for 
the next 24 hours with regard to cigs/vsbys...but winds will 
increase from the north later tonight as a cold front moves across 
the region. 12/ds 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 41 54 28 57 / 05 00 05 05 
Pensacola 42 56 30 57 / 05 05 05 05 
Destin 44 56 37 56 / 05 05 05 05 
Evergreen 33 52 23 58 / 05 00 05 05 
Waynesboro 34 51 22 58 / 05 00 05 05 
Camden 34 51 24 57 / 05 00 05 05 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...red flag warning from 11 am Friday to 6 PM Friday for the 
following zones: Butler...Choctaw...Clarke...Conecuh... 
Covington...Crenshaw...Escambia...lower Baldwin...lower 
Mobile...Monroe...upper Baldwin...upper Mobile... 
Washington...and Wilcox. 


Hard freeze watch from midnight Saturday to 8 am Saturday for 
the following zones: Butler...Choctaw...Clarke...Conecuh... 
Covington...Crenshaw...Escambia...Monroe...Washington...and 
Wilcox. 


Red flag warning from 10 am Saturday to 5 PM Saturday for the 
following zones: Butler...Choctaw...Clarke...Conecuh... 
Covington...Crenshaw...Escambia...lower Baldwin...lower 
Mobile...Monroe...upper Baldwin...upper Mobile... 
Washington...and Wilcox. 


Florida...red flag warning from 11 am Friday to 6 PM Friday for the 
following zones: coastal Escambia...coastal Okaloosa... 
coastal Santa Rosa...inland Escambia...inland Okaloosa... 
and inland Santa Rosa. 


Red flag warning from 10 am Saturday to 5 PM Saturday for the 
following zones: coastal Escambia...coastal Okaloosa... 
coastal Santa Rosa...inland Escambia...inland Okaloosa... 
and inland Santa Rosa. 


Hard freeze watch from midnight Saturday to 8 am Saturday for 
the following zones: and inland Okaloosa. 


MS...hard freeze watch from midnight Saturday to 8 am Saturday for 
the following zones: Greene...Perry...and Wayne. 


GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Friday to 6 am Saturday for 
the following zones: coastal waters from Destin to 
Pensacola Florida out 20 nm...coastal waters from Pensacola Florida 
to Pascagoula MS out 20 nm...Mobile Bay...waters from 
Destin to Pensacola Florida from 20 to 60 nm...and waters from 
Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$