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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
248 am CST Friday Nov 21 2008 


Short term...today and tonight. 


Dry cold front currently working its way through the state with 
breezy northerly winds and a few low level clouds. This will 
equate to plenty of cold air advection through the rest of the day 
and a ton of dry air settling across the state. We will really 
struggle with highs today...in fact...have lowered afternoon highs 
a degree of two from earlier forecast packages as newer guidance 
continues to trend down. As the winds relax through the evening 
hours...radiational cooling will take over under clear skies 
leaving US with possibly the coldest temperatures of the season thus far. 
Bundle up! 


17/klaws 




Long term...Saturday through Thursday. 


Cold dome of high pressure will slide off quickly to the east with 
southeast surface winds returning to area Saturday afternoon. This 
will allow temperatures to rebound nicely into middle to upper 50s 
after a cold start to the morning. Warming temperatures and low 
dewpoints will combine to produce low relative humidities Saturday 
afternoon and high fire danger. Fast moving short wave trough will 
pass to the north of Alabama Saturday night. The trough will not 
have any discernible impact on weather. A stronger short wave 
trough will dip into the upper Mississippi River valley region 
Sunday night. Deepening southerly flow on back side of East Coast 
ridge will allow for limited moisture return ahead of advancing 
cold front. GFS model has shown good run to run consistency with 
this system. Surface cold front will push through central Alabama 
Monday afternoon producing scattered showers. There may be enough 
instability across South Alabama for isolated thunderstorms...but 
left thunder out of forecast for now. This is a progressive system 
and rain will move out of area Monday evening. 


Mostly clear conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures 
near average. A low latitude strong Pacific system will move into 
the southwestern states by middle week. This system will cross The 
Rockies and into the Southern Plains states by end of the week. 
Models typically shift these systems to fast to the east...but did 
introduce small rain chances West Alabama Thursday night. 




58/rose 


&& 


Aviation...06z taf discussion. 


Northerly winds 10 to 20 miles per hour will continue through 18z...then 
gradually diminish. Ceilings 3000 to 5000 feet can be expected at 
tcl...bhm...eet and anb through 09z...with clouds gradually 
dissipating after 09z and clear skies expected after 12z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 


Low humidities in the wake of a cold front will create a high fire 
danger across the area for several hours on Saturday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 44 22 53 24 60 / 0 0 10 0 0 
Anniston 44 23 54 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Birmingham 45 24 54 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Tuscaloosa 49 25 55 28 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Calera 48 27 53 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Auburn 48 23 57 28 61 / 0 0 10 0 0 
Montgomery 50 26 57 30 64 / 0 0 0 10 0 
Troy 49 23 57 26 63 / 0 0 0 10 0 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...Fire Weather Watch all zones 
Saturday 11 am to 5pm. 


&& 


$$