203 
fxus64 kmob 210952 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
351 am CST Friday Nov 21 2008 


Short term...(today and tonight)...Canadian airmass will move over 
the southeastern Continental U.S. Behind a front moving over the northern Gulf 
at this time. Guidance is in pretty good agreement on the 
possibility of temperatures dropping into the lower 20s over the northern 
two thirds of the forecast area tonight. See no reason to drop the hard freeze 
watch at this time...though am letting day shift make the upgrade as 
feel that a degree or two upward in guidance will negate the need 
for the hard freeze. /16 






(saturday through Sunday night)saturday should dawn clear and cold 
with temperatures well below freezing from Interstate 10 northward. 
Record lows for Mobile and Pensacola on Saturday are 26 and 
27...which should not be met...but will be close. The surface high 
driving the cold air southward will move from the Southern Plains 
today to the coastal Carolinas by Sunday...keeping the coldest air 
in this area over the northern half...similar to the system of a few 
days ago. Also similar is the absence of precipitation as the 
atmosphere does not have time to moisten up with the north...then 
easterly low levels winds and zonal upper flow. Temperatures will 
moderate a bit by Saturday night but will still be pockets of middle 
and upper 20s in the typically colder areas of the north and 
northeast. Sunday night temperatures much warmer as easterly winds 
turn south in advance of next frontal system moving east across the 
middle Mississippi Valley. May even be a few showers over southeast 
Mississippi and the western border of southwest Alabama before 
sunrise Monday. /11 


Long term...(monday through thursday)cold front will cross the 
area Monday night with a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms 
in advance of the front on Monday. Moisture remains limited and 
instability rather skimpy with the surface low well off to the 
northeast in the eastern Great Lakes. Any thunderstorms should be 
confined to the coastal and offshore areas where the higher dew 
points and cape will be in place. High pressure builds across the 
area Tuesday through Thursday with northwest flow aloft and a return 
to dry conditions. Low temperatures look to remain above freezing 
with this system. /11 


&& 


Aviation...(for 12z forecast) under strong northerly flow through 
the period. /16 




&& 


Marine...strong northerly flow behind a frontal passage will shift 
to northeast through tonight as surface high pressure pushes east 
from over the Southern Plains to the southeastern Continental U.S.. guidance is 
advertising a tight enough gradient over Alabama/northwest Florida coastal waters to 
keep the flow strong into Friday night...before easing late Friday 
night into Saturday. Surface high will slowly meander east...to off 
the Carolina coast by Monday morning...keeping a generally 
northeasterly flow through most of the weekend before becoming 
southeasterly Monday morning. Onshore flow Monday will become 
offshore again Monday night as another front crosses the area 
beginning Monday evening. 


/16 


&& 


Fire weather...red flag warning remains up for Alabama and the 
Florida Panhandle this afternoon and again on Saturday afternoon. 
Lowest surface humidity should be around 20 percent both afternoons 
at least over the interior...coastal strip will be a bit higher but 
within red flag guidelines. Strong transport winds today will keep 
dispersion in the fair to average range...even with the lower mixing 
heights with the colder air mass. Generally poor dispersion Saturday 
with the subsidence associated with the passing surface high just to 
the north. /11 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 53 28 57 38 / 00 00 00 00 
Pensacola 56 31 57 40 / 00 00 00 00 
Destin 57 37 56 41 / 00 00 00 00 
Evergreen 51 23 58 26 / 00 00 00 00 
Waynesboro 50 25 58 25 / 00 00 00 00 
Camden 51 24 57 29 / 00 00 00 00 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...red flag warning from 11 am Friday to 6 PM Friday for the 
following zones: Butler...Choctaw...Clarke...Conecuh... 
Covington...Crenshaw...Escambia...lower Baldwin...lower 
Mobile...Monroe...upper Baldwin...upper Mobile... 
Washington...and Wilcox. 


Hard freeze watch from midnight Saturday to 8 am Saturday for 
the following zones: Butler...Choctaw...Clarke...Conecuh... 
Covington...Crenshaw...Escambia...Monroe...Washington...and 
Wilcox. 


Red flag warning from 10 am Saturday to 5 PM Saturday for the 
following zones: Butler...Choctaw...Clarke...Conecuh... 
Covington...Crenshaw...Escambia...lower Baldwin...lower 
Mobile...Monroe...upper Baldwin...upper Mobile... 
Washington...and Wilcox. 


Florida...red flag warning from 11 am Friday to 6 PM Friday for the 
following zones: coastal Escambia...coastal Okaloosa... 
coastal Santa Rosa...inland Escambia...inland Okaloosa... 
and inland Santa Rosa. 


Red flag warning from 10 am Saturday to 5 PM Saturday for the 
following zones: coastal Escambia...coastal Okaloosa... 
coastal Santa Rosa...inland Escambia...inland Okaloosa... 
and inland Santa Rosa. 


Hard freeze watch from midnight Saturday to 8 am Saturday for 
the following zones: and inland Okaloosa. 


MS...hard freeze watch from midnight Saturday to 8 am Saturday for 
the following zones: Greene...Perry...and Wayne. 


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am Saturday for the following 
zones: coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola Florida out 20 
nm...coastal waters from Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS out 
20 nm...Mobile Bay...waters from Destin to Pensacola Florida 
from 20 to 60 nm...and waters from Pensacola Florida to 
Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$